Networked Society Shaping Ideas

Uploaded by ericssonmultimedia on 02.09.2011

[♪sustained note♪]
[male narrator] During the course of a year, we traveled the globe to interview top thinkers
to gather their predictions regarding our world in 2020.
Their topics covered all aspects of life, including communication, female empowerment,
the health of our planet, and the future for young people.
While the visions might differ, one thing is clear:
the newfound possibilities to communicate and collaborate on a deeper level
is changing our society as we speak.
[male speaker] Every generation since the Greeks
have felt that things have never changed so fast.
[Jeffrey Cole - Director, USC Annenberg School, Center for the Digital Future]
They've never witnessed such blinding innovation.
The difference is this time it may be true.
[female speaker] It's very easy to find engineers and scientists
who can tell you about what the future could be.
[Carlota Perez - Professor, Technological University of Tallinn]
They know very well what can be done technologically and scientifically.
The problem is that what can be done, what's technologically feasible,
is not necessarily economically profitable or socially acceptable.
So in fact, to know what technology can do
does not necessarily tell us what the future is going to be like.
The way we know is to combine what technology can do
with how society will shape it.
[male speaker] If you think about where we're at in human history,
[Don Tapscott - Author, Grown Up Digital]
I don't think this is just a recession; I think it's a punctuation point--
that we're going from something old to something new.
[traffic noises]
[dog barking]
[computer keys tapping]
[Vint Cerf] A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away
a man named Robert Kahn and I designed the Internet in 1973.
[Vint Cerf - Chief Internet Evangelist, Google] People often ask,
"Did you imagine what would happen?"
"Did you have any idea what the network would look like?"
"There's almost 2 billion people using it around the world."
"There's hundreds of millions of computers."
The short answer is no.
But we had some real sense for the power of this technology.
[Tapscott] The Internet is beginning to fundamentally change
the way that we orchestrate capability in society to innovate,
to create goods and services, to govern, to educate.
[male speaker] I see already there are a lot of initiatives.
I see connected learning, I see remote healthcare,
I see video presence, videoconferencing,
a lot of things that actually we can start analyzing the impact on the society.
[Hans Vestberg - President and CEO, Ericsson]
And here we can start addressing the problems like healthcare in the world,
education, we can even address poverty
because we're going to create business environments for people having connectivity.
[Cole] To really understand how the Internet is going to change our lives in the future,
we can look briefly at what it's done to this point.
The most interesting change we've seen--
and we think it's going to continue to dominate all change--is empowerment,
the power people are gaining over their environment.
If you think about it, the newspaper used to land on our door once a day,
we used to watch television on a broadcast network schedule, not when we wanted to,
but now we've gained power in all those environments.
We've gained power to consume our media when we want--on our terms;
how we want--with our without some commercials;
we can read a story online or in print.
So what we really think we're going to see gaining in the future is power--
power with politicians, teachers, power in the medical community,
power over our lives that we've never had before--
and we expect to see that empowerment coupled with the true rise of mobile.
We think everything is moving to mobile.
[Cerf] More and more devices are becoming part of the Internet or accessible to it.
So now try to imagine that it's 2020.
Well, we're all carrying mobiles now,
but those mobiles have sensors in them, they have video capability,
they can hear sound, of course they have transmission capability,
they have computing capability.
So you might imagine in 2020 you could talk to someone in one language
and he would hear a different one,
you could take a picture of something and say, "What's this?"
Suddenly this computer becomes much more a companion than a device that you drive.
And so I think we will see in, certainly, 10 years' time
more and more involvement of computers with our daily lives and daily actions,
accepting input from us in the way another human being would.
That's science fiction today, but it probably is engineering reality in the future.
[narrator] Today it's pretty clear that Mr. Cerf's invention of the Internet
has had an enormous impact on our lives,
both in a professional and personal sense.
And while social networks and application stores are the beginning of something big,
the really interesting things will happen when being connected is no longer an issue.
It's not only the way we collaborate that's evolving.
Better tools means more voices,
and more voices means even greater change.
[beeping, whirring]
[Perez] Information technology isn't just about information,
isn't just about computers and Internet.
It is also about transforming the way companies get organized,
transforming products, transforming every single other industry.
[male speaker] If you look at new forms of organization emerging,
if you look at the way that Wikipedia is organized or Linux, the open source software,
they're much more like birds' nests.
[Charles Leadbeater - Author, We-think: The Power of Mass Creativity]
They're kind of people dropping in their piece of information or their contribution
and it fitting together in a way that builds up to create something.
And no one is really in charge.
It's a much more emergent structure. It's not planned in advance.
There's no one with a big design for it.
More of the models of the future will be mixing how you share and collaborate
and give stuff away so other people can do things with you.
The Web opens up new ways for that to be possible.
[traffic noises]
[elevator bell rings]
[male speaker] I think companies are changing in the way
they're being able to deliver solutions.
[Michael Dell - CEO, Dell Inc]
So if you say we have a guy who is in Tokyo and he goes to a customer
and a customer has a particular problem
and he figures out how to solve this customer's problem
and on his way back to the office--or maybe he works from home--
he's kind of entering in to this social network
what the problem the customer had was and how he solved it,
and now instantly there are hundreds or thousands of people
that are trying to solve the same problem,
they now have access to that information.
Those solutions will distribute themselves much more rapidly.
So instead of waiting for that to perhaps bubble up to some product manager
and then the product manager somehow gets on an airplane and goes to a meeting
and shares the information, or somebody hears about it and they share it with another person
and then a few months later maybe somebody in France hears about it,
with the collaboration tools, this is happening instantly.
I think the winners will be the organizations that are flexible and agile enough
to adopt these kind of capabilities and enable their teams with these tools
and can use that information to become, effectively, better businesses.
[female speaker] One of the other big trends we already see is empathic leadership.
The new leader is much more in touch with embracing the whole picture
rather than just one side. [Anne Lise Kjaer - Futurist, Kjaer Global]
We're looking at whole brain thinking
and really looking at empathic leadership.
We already see some fantastic examples, and many of them are women.
In fact, we will see by 2020 that it will be--
really, maybe this whole century will be about female empowerment.
And female empowerment and empathic leadership
are those 2 trends that are very closely connected.
We're speaking about a leader who is not on top and all the other people are here.
We are looking much more of equality.
So that's really what is ruling the world, and that, of course, goes hand in hand
with this idea of co-creation.
The female leader will much more co-create with her team
rather than being the boss on the top telling everybody what to do.
Feeling empowered is feeling in control, feeling successful,
feeling nothing matters but being together and doing things.
And I think this is really what we already see,
because when we look at the Internet, that is what is the biggest revolution.
[♪sustained note♪]
[Perez] Most people think that technology just is continuous progress, continuous change.
But in fact, technology changes by big chunks--
40 to 60 years of deployment of each technological revolution.
And very often I'm asked why.
It's because of generational shift.
[Tapscott] Today many of the best examples of innovation in business
or in education or in society or government are coming from young people.
They're already beginning to revolutionize the corporation
as they bring a whole new culture and a new set of tools.
In the universities they're causing a lot of conflict
because they don't want to go to lectures and they want to learn collaboratively.
I think that they just lack a sense of being constrained.
They're a generation that's growing up interacting, collaborating,
organizing information, remembering, authenticating, scrutinizing,
and this is affecting their brains.
And they have no fear of technology because it's not there.
It's like the air to them.
And there's a lot of cynicism about the generation.
They're net-addicted, glued to the screen, losing their social skills.
A book called Generation Me says we've created a little army of narcissists.
All they care about is My Space and YouTube.
Well, the only trouble with this negative view of young people,
there's no data to support it.
In the US, the percent of kids that are clean in high school--
that don't do drugs or alcohol--is up year over year for 15 years,
IQ is up year over year for many years,
SAT scores are at an all-time high,
it's never been tougher to get into the best universities.
This is a generation that we can be enormously hopeful about.
And let's face it, my generation is leaving them a world that is full of big, serious,
systemic, and deep problems.
[narrator] Our culture is transforming, and the rules that formed our society 10 years ago
might not be the rules that survive the coming 10.
In order to maintain the same lifestyle, the same standard of living that we have today,
by the year 2050 we would need 7 planets.
To solve a problematic equation like that,
technology and transformational change will have the chance to play an important role
going forward.
[male speaker] If you look back on human history
and see how human societies have developed,
[Will Steffen - Executive Director, ANU Climate Change Institute]
it's not a nice, even curve of progress, progress, progress.
We come to critical points in history where we transform,
we do things differently, or indeed we collapse.
And there's good examples of that, like the Mayans, the Romans, and so on who collapsed
and things sprang up in their place.
So I think we need to think of that as we go forward.
Will we be one of those societies that simply collapse,
which is a fairly painful way of learning how to do something new,
or will we think ahead and transform ourselves voluntarily into a different type of society
that can be sustained further into the future?
When we have a climate crisis, as we do now,
[Jeffrey Sachs - President, Earth Institute, Columbia University]
it's not good enough for Sweden or the United States or a few rich countries to say,
"Okay, we'll solve the problem," because they can't anymore.
It depends on what's happening in other parts of the world.
Even very poor countries play a role through deforestation, for example.
So when you think about it, all of our global problems need global cooperation
and global solutions.
[Hans Rosling - Professor, Karolinska Institutet] The weakest point today
is the lack of global governance.
Nation-states are still very strong.
We talk about globalization, but we do not have a strong enough united nation,
we do not have mechanics for governance.
You have to include all major countries in the world
and see that the world economy is run in the interest of everyone.
[Steffen] I think if we start building trust between countries,
between private sectors and governments and so on,
we will hasten these tipping points being reached, and then things will move faster.
So this bundle of activities--of technologies themselves,
the institutions and the economic instruments--
are critical to reduce impact over the next few decades.
[female speaker] Technology is going to be one part of the answer.
It seems clear that we are developing cleaner engines, cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the more we solve that problem,
[Patricia Mokhtarian - Professor, University of California]
we're still going to have the problem of an increasing desire to travel
and an increasingly networked economy automatically generating more travel
of its own accord.
I think we need to get more sophisticated about making the maximum use
of the transportation capacity that we have.
Telecommunications is helping us do that
by allowing us to increase the throughput of vehicles on a given roadway,
by coordinating the network in such a way that we're maximizing the flow
through that network.
But selectively, we'll need to add new capacity,
whether it's to the roadways or to public transportation or, most likely, both
and to airlines and to long distance rail.
So we'll be working at as many different angles as we can
to ameliorate the effects, but the demand is increasing
as economic prosperity worldwide continues to increase.
As after every major crash in the middle of each technological revolution,
we now have the possibility of a sustainable global Golden Age ahead.
Historically, we have had the great British leap in the first revolution,
the Victorian Boom in the second,
the Belle Epoque in the third, the postwar Golden Age in the '50s and '60s,
and we could now have the Golden Age ahead.
When the poor catch up rapidly, it's because they leapfrog technology.
And the reason why a country like China with 1.3 billion people can have phenomenal growth--
10% per year, doubling every 7 years--is because it's closing the technology gap
very, very quickly, making workers more productive,
making households more productive.
Information communication technology is now playing an essential role
in economic development.
What we're seeing now is that this particular revolution is global by nature,
because the Information Revolution is capable of communicating everybody,
and it is capable of producing for everybody and moving for the whole globe.
For the first time in history, we could have a global Golden Age
in the sense that everybody could improve.
[Vestberg] I think to realize the full potential of this revolution,
this networked society, I think it starts with collaboration over borders
between different industries, because it's not only one industry, it's all industries.
This is a global change.
But more important maybe is that we have a global vision.
[Sachs] This could be a tremendous global empowerment, and I believe if we aim at it,
this is what will happen.
Of course we have to remember there's nothing which guarantees
that technologies get picked up and are successful
if the wave of instability, if the wave of climate change,
if the wave of shocks of conflict overwhelm us.
That's why I'm constantly emphasizing the potential is there,
but there's no guarantee.
In order to achieve what we want, we have to work at it.
I feel very fortunate that I happen to have been born in a time
where an historic new medium of human communications came to be
and began to transform all of our institutions.
This is a time of great promise, but it's also a time of great peril,
and it's up to human beings to use this technology for the common good.
[Vestberg] Going forward, I think only our imagination
is putting a limit to what more we can do.
And I think we have a great responsibility--all of us--to actually live the vision
and execute on this vision, because it is going to lead to something better,
and we can address so many of the key challenges that we have on the earth today.