Networked Society, On the Brink


Uploaded by ericssonmultimedia on 03.11.2011

Transcript:
[♪ suspenseful piano music ♪]
[Narrator] There has not been a time, I don't think, in history
that has enabled such rapid change,
and in the most optimistic view,
which is also simultaneously the most pessimistic view,
[David Weinberger Technologist, Co-author of Cluetrain Manifesto] a time that is enabling
humans to be more of what we are.
[♪ suspenseful harp and piano music ♪]
[Narrator] There's actually quite an exciting future.
For instance, medical technologies, we're doing quite a lot of work at Wired
in sensors that are helping monitor the data coming from your body,
[David Rowan, Chief Editor, Wired UK] and optimizing your medical outcome.
We're going to live healthier; we're going to live longer.
Education, you can get Ivy League colleges putting videos out.
You've got the TED Conferences putting videos out,
the Khan Academy, and suddenly everybody has access
to this fantastic array of knowledge.
[♪ beautiful piano music ♪]
So I think so many forces are happening, and the internet is central
to spreading all this information, and it's becoming easier
for us to break out of our assumptions.
We don't know what news is going to look like.
We don't know what education is going to look like.
We don't know what government is going--we don't know what business is going to look like
because we're inventing it out of a new set of connections.
For the first time now, ever, things are intelligent connected
and powerful, and we've just seen the beginning of the connected society
[Ola Ahlvarsson, Internet Entrepreneur, CEO Keynote Media] where, you know,
you have everything that can have a chip in it, will have a chip in it.
They're going to collect data.
They're going to communicate with each other, and
it's going to be a very, very different world.
We're the last generation that grew up in a dumb society
where things were stupid and uninteresting.
[♪ soft piano music ♪]
[On the Brink of a Networked Society]
I came out to San Francisco.
I moved out here in 1994, and
you know was fortunate [Caterina Fake, Internet Entrepreneur, Co-Founder of Flickr]
to be here when all of these things were kind of taking off.
A lot of companies saw what was going to happen in the future,
and they started investing in it.
So 6 months after your investment, it could be worth 50 times more
than what you invested.
This than fueled a tornado of people
wanting to get in these companies.
It was like--here in San Francisco, it was like a second gold rush.
Rapidly you know that went away.
You know suddenly everything kind of crashed,
and burned, and you know circa 2000-2001.
In 6 months I lost 98% of my portfolio value,
and my hair turned grey in those 6 months as well.
The obstacles to doing business online, in those days,
they were you know just enormous.
First of all broadband sucked.
You didn't have payment systems that were secure, that people trusted.
Logistic hit people like a surprise from hell.
Technology cost also.
It wasn't there; you didn't have the relationship to internet.
It wasn't smooth and easy enough to actually do the things you wanted to do.
In 2002, when I started my company,
it was impossible to raise any financing.
Nobody believed that you could build anything for consumers anymore.
Everybody was fleeing to building B2B companies, and
it was all very conservative, again.
The ones that actually hung in there, and
kept on creating companies for the right reason,
they created the Googles,
and the sort of the facebooks, and the TradeDoublers,
and the STARTTLS, and whatever.
A lot of these companies were born in the aftermath of the dot-com boom
where you couldn't get any capital, where you couldn't get
you know people to believe your dream if you didn't really, really believe in it yourself.
[♪ soft dark music ♪]
[Move Fast and Break Things]
SOUNDCLOUD HQ, Berlin]
SoundCloud today is the leading sound sharing platform on the web.
So we have a community of about 8 million sound creators
sharing sounds in various ways across the whole web.
[Eric Wahlforss, CEO and Co-Founder SoundCloud] One of the sort of
very characteristic things about SoundCloud is that we make sounds tangible.
We make them visual.
Back in '07, when we started SoundCloud,
there was a clear lack of tools available
for sound creators, and we felt that very strongly as the founders
because we were both doing, you know working with sound on
a kind of regular basis; so I, myself, I was making music, and
you know my co-founder, he was working in sound studio as well.
So we felt that very strongly that this needs to change.
[♪ upbeat music ♪]
There's a long history before us, and there were lots of interesting things happening
in sort of the music and also the sound space in the past sort of 15 years,
but I think it's only now, until relatively recently
that we've seen, you know, an explosion of mobile devices.
You know internet connectivity, wireless connectivity that's fast enough,
and so everything has sort of come together in this sort of perfect storm,
and those kinds of technology drivers have been
like extremely important to put us in a position where we are today.
[♪ soft upbeat music ♪]
In the case of the music industry,
we've gone through an extremely disruptive phase, right?
So we've seen the whole shift from physical to digital, and
we see that being more and more established now,
but I think that you know
we are going to see even more profound changes in other industries
that have yet to come.
[sound of wind in a tunnel]
Like with most established industries,
you have you know large industries that have vested interests.
They have a huge legacy, lots of people
with an old mindset in place, right?
So it takes a really strong technology enabler.
It takes a really strong sort of mind shift in general
to actually change that, and to challenge the existing business models,
to tear them down, and to put something else in place, right?
And you know these companies are going to resist in various ways.
They're going to put up barriers and try to prolong this,
you know what they already have, right?
But eventually that's not going to be possible anymore,
and they're going to be replaced.
They're going to be wiped out and replaced by something new.
[sounds of people in a crowd talking]
We're at a time where things change like that.
A new product comes along and it changes the entire market.
[♪ slower music ♪] Suddenly, anybody who can learn
a decent amount of code, can sell to a global market.
Any farmer can find out, for the first time, in real time
what the real price of their crops are.
So they're not going to be ripped off by the middle man.
Suddenly anybody can reach the end consumer by their mobile phone,
and so there's fantastic ways that traditional structures are being bypassed,
in ways that seem to benefit everybody.
[♪ piano music ♪]
The tools are out there; the software, this open source is available.
The new business models everybody can get access to.
All of these things that were creating incredible friction,
you know at the outset, during the first era of the web,
have been eliminated.
So for instance if I'm an 11-year-old
and sitting in Holland, and
I want to start a E-commerce site selling things in Ghana,
I can do that at almost zero cost.
I can pay $20 a month, and then I have
the rudimentary E-commerce service, and then
if somebody buys something,
I just pay for the capacity that I use.
That was not possible before.
We had an event, and we invited an 11-year-old guy.
He's called Puck.
His company is called Puckipedia, and he's the top selling
apps developer in Holland, and
we said, "But how can you speak so good English?"
He said, "I picked it up on the internet a couple of years ago to improve my programming."
So borderless creativity, borderless entrepreneurship,
and a more democratic field
where it's not only big companies that can do things.
Now this doesn't mean that every idea is a good idea, or
that everybody will succeed, or even that its more easy to become successful.
It's not easier to become Lady Gaga today than it was 20 years ago,
even though anybody can try.
Just the fact that people can try is something that I like a lot.
[♪ upbeat music ♪]
[sound of waves hitting the shore]
[♪ upbeat music ♪]
[CCP Games, Reykjavik] I think ever since
we started to use connected technology.
People have always dreamed about the idea virtual world.
[♪ upbeat music ♪]
EVE online would be categorized as an MMO,
massive multiplayer online game.
People are fighting over territory, resources,
building partnerships with other players,
a lot of politics, metagaming involved, and
it's a real economy with inflation and everything that goes with
a real life economy.
[computer game talking] Insufficient power.
We're creating a stage or a scene where people can actually go in
and experience something very authentic and very real with other people.
[Elisabet Gretarsdottir, Marketing Director, EVE Online] In real life,
we don't allow ourselves to experience extremely thrilling things.
We have cocooned ourselves so much
that it takes an effort to move ourselves out of this daily routine of comfort
to experience something as a virtual as EVE Online can allow you to do.
[♪ soft dark music ♪]
I think it's obviously the future for entertainment.
Allow people to participate in their entertainment,
and in the lectures instead of being passive consumers
of entertainment that's designed for them
and sometimes mass produced for us.
I see virtual worlds not as a substitute
but as a compliment to our everyday life.
If you look at the takeoff in terms of virtual goods,
[Robin Teigland] the amount of money being spent on virtual goods,
just a few years ago, there wasn't even a market,
and I mean it's growing millions, millions, and I mean
it's--yeah, it's growing tremendously.
So--and this is only the beginning
because people are only selling really virtual goods in these worlds,
but can you imagine when you can start selling your physical goods?
So say you're a fashion designer, and people can come in and buy
both virtual good as well as your physical line of clothing.
As more and more people have access to the internet,
as virtual worlds become easier to access,
and the technology becomes better,
there are going to be a lot more people exploring,
especially as you have this younger generation growing up and seeing the possibilities.
Right now there are about little over half a billion
users of virtual worlds who are under the age of 15.
So you can imagine as these, in the next 3-5 years,
start entering the workforce or even start, you know,
going into school, they just expect that they'll be able to
play and communicate in these worlds,
and see the possibilities.
What would happen if facebook tomorrow decides to develop a 3D world
where people could buy and exchange things for facebook credits?
Physical goods, virtual goods, and what would happen
if they decided to get a bank license,
and you could convert your facebook credits to euros?
I think this is where many of our traditional--
our assumptions about what work is,
about economic activity are going to be questioned
because you have new virtual currencies potentially coming up, and
perhaps being even stronger than some that we have today.
[♪ soft music ♪]
I love the fact that something that didn't exist last year,
this year we're taking for granted.
If you look at children, 4-year-old children,
if they see a television, they'll pinch it
because that's their expectation of the screen.
We're still on a journey towards universal
ubiquitous internet.
We're still only at the third generation of connectivity,
and we've just done some research on fourth generation
that will allow you to do everything you can do on your desktop machine
on your mobile device.
You can watch videos seamlessly wherever you are.
You can connect and that changes behavior.
It means you have this new expectation of the whole world of entertainment
wherever you are
[♪ soft music ♪]
[57% talk more online than in real life]
[♪ sound of bells ringing ♪]
[48% of 18 to 34 year olds check facebook first thing in the morning]
[♪ classical music ♪]
[1 out of 6 married couples met online]
[♪ classical music with the sound of a watch ticking ♪]
[kids aged 8 to 18 spend more than 7.5 hours a day with mobile devices]
[♪ classical music ♪]
[one in five global mobile subscribers has access to fast mobile internet]
[mobile searches have quadrupled in the last year]
[by 2014, mobile internet will take over desktop internet usage]
[by 2020, more than 50 billion devices will be connected]
[♪ classical music ♪]
Botanicalls is a system for plants to reach out for human help
when they need light or water, and
it's currently available as an open source kit that anyone can buy and build, and install
[Rob Faludi, Author of Building Wireless Sensor Networks] in their own plant.
The system has 2 moisture probes in the soil, and
if a plant drys out, it sends a message to Twitter
asking to be watered, and if you come and water the plant,
it's very polite; it'll Tweet, again, and thank you for watering it.
Botanicalls works at a very small scale in your home,
but the same systems are already in use in large-scale industrial agriculture.
For example, rather than just having 1 soil moisture probe somewhere
in an enormous cornfield, they can be scattered throughout the field,
hundreds of them, and that will give you a whole topography
of how soil moisture or other factors are performing,
and you can compare that to a yield on your crop,
learning new things about agriculture and making even better food,
even faster and in a more efficient way.
[♪ classical music ♪]
All of the devices that we make today
have the potential to communicate with each other and have a reason to do it.
We can look at energy.
Right now the power company doesn't know how I use power,
which is kind of crazy.
They have this product they put out in the world, and they have no information on
how it's being consumed.
So in the future, when I turn on my air conditioner,
that will start a whole chain of events.
The information about what I'm using and why
will end up at the power generation company,
hopefully before it creates a crisis on the grid.
They will be able to change the way that power is being used,
but also maybe come back and tell my air conditioner to behave differently in my home.
A large car company can put sensors and reporting in all of its vehicles,
and understand how its vehicles are performing in the world,
and how to make them better by getting all the information
about every single instance of heavy braking for example.
Why it happens, when it happens, and then create objects
and devices that work a lot better using that information.
We will start interacting with our world and with our tools.
Instead of having tools that are dumb and that we just use,
we can give the tools instructions, and the tools can then be independent more easily
because they'll understand a little bit about the world around them.
They'll know maybe whether we're home or not.
They'll know maybe what we did that day.
They will understand our behaviors.
Now that's home networking, but you can think it's very important also
in something like assisted living.
So we have elderly people who maybe are unable to entirely take care of themselves.
The things around them can become in part caretakers.
You can imagine if this spread across a whole living interactive system,
it could really make us use our resources better.
It could save us a lot of money, and
make the world a better place to live.
One thing we can't know is what the interaction of all these objects will come out to.
I don't think the world will spiral out of control,
and the robots will win.
I wouldn't do this if I thought that was the case.
Just the way the internet hasn't made the world spiral out of control.
It's really pretty much been useful, and humans tend to push the edges of technology,
but reel back when they've gone too far, and I think that will continue to happen.
[♪ suspenseful music ♪]
When the light bulb was the thing, and they dug up
all of New York just to be able to put light bulbs in houses.
They didn't really see the extension of light bulbs,
that you could have other electrical appliances,
and Jeff Bezoz of Amazon, he uses that as an example.
He thinks we're at the light-bulb stage of the internet.
So we dig the broadband, now we can dial up.
Now we can connect.
Now we can do things,
but the sort of implications of having broadband everywhere
with you all the time, it's just starting.
Having networks where everybody can talk with everybody else,
build things that have some permanence and have an address
so they can always be found and reused,
keeping those barriers to entry low,
we haven't had that before,
and every day we're seeing unexpected results of this.
We're just at the beginning of seeing what we're going to build together.
So I think in 10 years there's lots of things we're going to look back on
with a sense of awkward embarrassment.
You know "Is it weird?"
We're going to say that education was something that happened
on a university platform with the lecturer talking to you,
and the crowd hasn't assessed how good that lecturer was.
Why are you only getting the person who's employed by that particular university?
Why aren't you getting the best knowledge in the world?
We'll think iIs it weird that we go to hospitals when we're ill,
and they have to start inputting data based on who we are.
Wouldn't it be weird to remember that era
before we were tapping into our output,
our data output the whole time so we could spot problems in advance?
So think how far we've come just in 15 years with the internet,
and think forward another 5, 10, 15 years
with virtual world as a 3D internet.
It's going to change much more in the next 10 years,
then what it did in the last 50 years,
and if you go back 50 years,
landing on the moon that was science fiction.
You know marriages lasted,
and bfills were considered hardcore.
Could you imagine that only 10 years from now,
the world will change much more, and that's because of the network societies.
So you know buckle up, it's going to be an interesting ride.
[NETWORKED SOCIETY]
[ERICCSON]