Q: How high can the gold price go? A: $15,000.

Uploaded by GoldMikeMaloney on 16.08.2009

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* * * . . * Ú á _Ç Â * * ƒ 0 ³ * } * } * * . ~ ~ D Â ~ ~ Â Brent Harms: So
Mike where are we in the gold cycle right now?
Michael Maloney: I believe at the most we are probably about 20 percent the way there.
I think there is a whole lot of purchasing power gains to be made coming up here. If
you take a look at my book, Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver, one of the premises here
is that through out the centuries whenever there is a problem with the currency, whether
it is deflation or inflation, people tend to rush back to gold and silver when the currency
becomes unstable. Especially during inflations when people see their purchasing power being
lost very quickly they rush back towards gold and silver to protect their purchasing power.
We don’t have hard data before the establishment of the Federal Reserve. Once the establishment
of the Federal Reserve we can see the actual data here.
What happens is the lower line here is the value of all the gold held at the treasury.
That’s the total value of gold measured in the ounces multiplied by the dollar price
of gold. So that’s the entire value. The upper line is the value of all the base
money that is basically the cash that’s in circulation. Base money is the cash in
circulation plus the deposits the banks have at the Federal Reserve. Now all of those deposits
are redeemable in cash. So it is basically all paper dollars that exist. In 1934 gold
was allowed to float in the open market and it rose until it hit 35 dollars an ounce and
in doing so it covered every paper note printed from George Washington to Roosevelt.
Then if you go to the 1970s bull market. Gold became free trading and the will of the public
and the free markets bid the price up to where for an entire year we could have go back on
the gold standard. Every paper dollar was covered. The value of all the gold at the
treasury exceeded the value all the paper dollars in circulation.
But I am sure you would agree credit cards are replacing cash in circulation. Wouldn’t
you say so? Brent Harms: Absolutely.
Mike Maloney: Ya. What people don’t know. When you sign a credit card, a lot of people
don’t know this, when you sign a credit card receipt you are expanding the currency
supply of the planet. That currency did exist until you signed that receipt and the bank
makes a book entry. Unpaid credit card balances are called outstanding revolving credit. So
if you go to the Fed’s website and you get these numbers and you add outstanding revolving
credit to the base money you will see that for three months gold also covered base money
when it got to 600 dollars an ounce and it over shot and went to 800 dollars an ounce.
The reason I argue that you have to include outstanding revolving credit in base money
is because when you sign that credit card receipt and you create that currency, you
pay it to a merchant the same as if you had paid paper dollars. Those dollars stay in
circulation until someone saves them up and pays down credit card debt. So it is really
base money. It is that circulating medium that is going though all the checking accounts.
And it (gold) covered outstanding revolving credit.
At the end of the book I show the same chart again, but now it is taken out to 2008 and
there is that little 1980 blip where gold went to 850 dollars and overshoot both base
money plus outstanding revolving credit. And gold has been doing this for about 2400 years.
Whenever a government expands the currency supply beyond a reasonable amount people rush
back to gold and silver to protect their purchasing power. They bid the price of gold and silver
up, measured in that debased currency, until the value of the gold and silver matches the
value of the debased currency. Well look at how we are debasing the currency today. Base
money went up to $825 billion and outstanding revolving credit is way up. It took, when
this book was printed in August 2008, about 6300 dollars an ounce for history to repeat
and for the value of all the gold at the treasury to rise where it would cover base money plus
outstanding revolving credit. Then a month later in September they bailed out Fannie
Mae and Freddy Mac and the total bailouts in 2008 came to about 900 billion dollars.
So the base money, or the check the fed wrote, increased base money from $825 to about $1.7
something trillion almost 1.8 trillion. Then in March the promised another 1.2 trillion.
That will bring us up to about 3 trillion of base money and this year, for the first
time, outstanding revolving credit exceeded a trillion dollars. So it is about 3 trillion
would be the total. For history to repeat and for gold to cover the same portion of
the currency supply it covered back in 1980 and back in 1934 gold has to go over $15,000
dollars an ounce, today. So no, the answer is the cycle has just begun.
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