California Isn't Getting Any Younger


Uploaded by KPBSSanDiego on 09.01.2013

Transcript:
>> >>PEGGY: BACK IN 1970 ABOUT ONE THIRD OF CALIFORNIANS WERE CHILDREN UNDER AGE 10.
SINCE THEN, THERE'S BEEN A STEADY DECLINE ON THE STATE'S BIRTH RATE.
NOW RESEARCHERS EXPECT THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN TO DROP TO 1 FIFTH OF THE POPULATION.
HERE WITH MORE ON THE POSSIBLE PROS AND CONS IS JOHN WEEKS, DEMOGRAPHER AT SAN DIEGO STATE
UNIVERSITY. BEFORE WE GET STARTED, I WANT TO PUT THIS
IN CONTEXT. USC RESEARCHERS COMPARED TO THE ANALYSIS FROM
THE CENSUS DATA FROM 2000, 2010 SHOWED THAT CALIFORNIA HAD ABOUT 175,000 FEWER CHILDREN
THAN WE DID A YEAR AGO. MAKING US THIRD IN NUMBER BEHIND MICHIGAN
AND NEW YORK. IS SAN DIEGO COUNTY'S POPULATION TRENDING
IN THE SAME WAY? >> >>THAD KOUSSER: YES, WE AREÊ THE BIRTH
RATE HAS DROPPED QUITED A BIT. AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE SANDAG DRAFT
POPULATION PROJECTIONS. THOSE PRO PROJECTIONS HAVEN'T BEEN APPROVED
YET BY THE SANDAG BOARD OF DIRECTORS BUT THAT CLEARLY HAS TO BE IN THOSE PROJECTIONS THAT
WE HAVE THIS DENT THAT WE ASSUME WILL BE A TEMPORARY DENT IN THE YOUNG AGES.
>> >>PEGGY: IT'S THE YOUNG AGES BECAUSE OVERALL POPULATION IN SAN DIEGO IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE.
>> >>: WE EXPECT TO ADD ROUGHLY 20 MILLION MORE PEOPLE.
MORE SLOWLY THAN IN THE PAST. AND THIS LITTLE DENT IN THE AGE STRUCTURE
WILL MOVE ITS WAY THROUGH. >> >>: LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT
THIS UFC REPORT, THIS LOWER BIRTH RATE, THERE ARE FEWER CHILDREN OF CHILD BEARING AGE HAVING
CHILDREN WAS ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT REASONS, WHAT DRIVES POPULATION GROWTH OR DECLINE?
>> >>: THERE'S REALLY THREE THINGS OBVIOUSLY, BIRTHS, DEATHS AND MIGRATION.
DEATHS HAVEN'T CHANGED, BIRTHS HAVE DROPPED ESPECIALLY AMONG HISPANIC WOMEN.
THIS IS TRUE THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES. HISPANIC WOMEN TEND TO HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVELS
OF FERTILITY. THAT GAVE THEM THE GREATEST FLEXIBILITY, I
SUPPOSE YOU MIGHT SAY, TO DROP THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN THE FACE OF THE ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
THAT WE'VE BEEN FACING OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. PLUS, IT WAS THE CASE THAT LATINA WOMEN IN
THE UNITED STATES WERE HAVING MORE CHILDREN THAN WOMEN IN MEXICO.
OVER TIME, THOSE CULTURES ARE MERGING IN PEOPLE'S MINDS.
I DON'T EXPECT US TO GO BACK TO THE DAYS OF A VERY HIGH LATINA FERTILITY IN THIS COUNTRY.
>> >>PEGGY: AND THE OTHER DRIVERS YOU WERE TOUCHING ON WERE ECONOMIC.
>> >>: MIGRATION, AND THAT'S RELATED TO ECONOMICS. IN CALIFORNIA, AND SAN DIEGO THIS IS TRUE
TOO, WE SEND MORE PEOPLE OUT TO OTHER STATE THAN WE GET BACK FROM OTHER STATE.
WERE IT NOT FOR INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, PEOPLE COMING FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, ESPECIALLY FROM
MEXICO, OBVIOUSLY, THE POPULATION WOULD BE MUCH SLOWER IN GROWING.
>> >>PEGGY: THREE STATE IN THE REPORT UTAH, NEVADA, AND IDAHO TOPPED THE LIST FOR HAVING
AN INCREASE OF 25% IN CHILDREN. IS THAT JUST A NUMBERS TYPE OF SITUATION,
OR DO YOU THINK THERE'S SOMETHING PARTICULAR ABOUTÊ
>> >>: THAT'S THE POPULATION DRIVING THAT IN ALL THREE OF THOSE STATE.
>> >>PEGGY: AT IT GETS FOR POPULATION STABILIZATION ARGUE IN A WORLD OF 7ÊBILLION PEOPLE, THE
DECLINE IN POPULATION ISN'T A BAD THING. IT MIGHT IMPROVE OUR ECONOMY OR OUR ENVIRONMENT.
DO YOU THINK THAT'S TRUE? >> >>: I THINK FOR THE WORLD AS A WHOLE, YES,
ABSOLUTELY. WE ARE ON TRACK RIGHT NOW EVEN WITH DECLINING
BIRTH RATES AROUND THE WORLD. WE'RE STILL ON TRACK TO ADD AT LEAST ANOTHER
TWO, PROBABLY ANOTHER THREE BILLION PEOPLE TO THE WORLD'S POPULATION BETWEEN NOW AND
THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY. THAT CAN'T BE GOOD FOR THE PLANET.
WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE IS REDISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TAKING PEOPLE WHO WERE BORN SOMEWHERE ELSE, MOVING THEM HERE, OR
PEOPLE HERE AND MOVING TO OTHER STATE. THAT'S A REDISTRIBUTION ISSUE.
>> >>PEGGY: THERE'S SOME SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE CHILDREN HERE.
EACH NEW BORN WILL CARRY A HEAVIER BURDEN TO DO THAT IF THEY'RE A SMALLER POPULATION
COMPARED TO THE SENIOR POPULATION. >> >>: THAT'S TRUE THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY.
THIS IS NOT A CALIFORNIA PROBLEM, THIS IS A NATIONAL PROBLEM.
IT'S IN FACT A PROBLEM OF ALL OF THE RICH COUNTRIES BECAUSE ALL OF THE RICH COUNTRIES
HAD BABY BOOMS AFTER WORLD WAR TWO. THOSE BABY BOOMERS ARE NOW OLDER PEOPLE, AND
THEY AND THEIR CHILDREN HAVE BEEN HAVING FEWER CHILDREN ON AVERAGE.
IT'S ONLY THE IMMIGRANTS WHO ARE ABLE TO REALLY FILL IN THE GAPS IN THE YOUNG AGE STRUCTURE.
>> >>PEGGY: MUCH MORE TO COME ON THIS, I'M SURE.
THANKS SO MUCH FOR TALKING WITH US.