Center for Family Business: Protecting Your Wealth for 2013


Uploaded by csufmihaylo on 23.10.2012

Transcript:
If there's one thing I could hope, a lesson I could
deliver today, is
successful investors consistently go against the crowd.
You're not always going to be right,
you're going to be lonely, and often early.
Three things.
All of which are sort of unpleasant
but I promise you, you'll be more successful than your peer group over
time.
This is what your peer group is doing.
The line on the right,
is buying bonds.
So in the environment that bonds is the most expensive in sixty years, what are
investors doing?
They can't get enough of them.
Not only treasuries, but things like high-yield. You're now seeing corporate
bonds-Johnson and Johnson issued a ten-year bond at two-point eight percent.
Unprecedented low yields.
How are investors responding?
Buying them.
The red line is stocks.
I've been doing this twenty seven years, i've never seen this before. What do investors
tend to do- things are doing well I want to get on board!
They're not doing that at all this year.
Part of this is you've got the first edge of-the leading edge of baby boomers.
Where over time we're structuring their portfolios.
In terms of less stocks more bonds. But this is panic, this is investor sentiment.
Which is still incredibly bearish on equities. To us, that's an opportunity-at least as you're
looking at your portfolios, I'd be saying I don't want to be
lightening up on the one that everybody wants to buy.
This is the overpriced house in the neighborhood
and a fixer upper looks like equities.
As, for myself,
I've been in the position of always arguing that
we are here to tell you what tax law is-
not what we hope tax law might be.
So back in two thousand nine I was advising my client telling them
no, it's due to go way. That's what the law says.
Well sure enough it did.
This year,
same exact things about to happen. January one two thousand thirteen is
looming
and everyone is sitting around wondering
are these changes really going to happen?
There's a suspension of disbelief going on where people aren't going to believe what's in
front of their own eyes.
But that's exactly what the law says.
It's not what Paul, do you think is going to happen. I'm telling you what's going to
happen January first, the rates are gonna go back to the way they used to be, the
estate tax laws can go back the way used to be, gift tax law. Everything reverts
back. There is no what happens if? That is what's happening.
So let's go forward one.
But there's a wild card going on as far as tax law changes go and that's the two
thousand ten healthcare act
that is
over two thousand pages of uncharted territory.
That no one really knows what's in it. We do know that there are about twenty or
so
tax provisions
now with the supreme court ruling we know what they all are we can call them
what they all are.
There are tax policy changes in the health care act that are,
some are unknown,
some are very known, we'll talk about some of the ones that are known.