China and Creativity are the keys to US Recovery

Uploaded by UTMcCombsSchool on 23.09.2011


These are tough times for us.
But I'm a firm believer that the first step in the process
of trying to figure out what you're going to do and then
doing it is to be very honest about what's going on.
And I think--
I don't have them here.
Let's see.
Does somebody have glasses?
I need to borrow some glasses.
Thank you.
There's a term I use, and I'm going to use
it again and again.
We have to have the ability to objectively look at what's
going on and say, this is our reality.
I call these--
nothing personal--
ugly baby glasses.
We have all seen ugly babies.
We've all seen them.
I'm not using you as a teaching tool, but yes I am.
But if Cathy, Cally had an ugly baby, we would never come
up to her and say, gosh your baby is so ugly.
We sure hope it looks better when it grows up.
We wouldn't say that, right?
What would we say?
What a wonderful baby!
That's what we tell her, and in the back of our mind, we're
thinking, ugly.
When you're in business, when you're dealing with political
or economic challenges, you don't have the luxury of lying
about what's going on.
And one of the challenges we have in this country is that
there are people who are refusing to talk about how
ugly our baby has become.
If you don't realize how ugly it is, you can't figure out
what you're going to do about it.
Now, hopefully you don't need plastic surgery for your baby.
The second set of glasses are glasses that reflect your
value systems. This is what I believe.
This is what I care about.
This is what's important to me.
And those are exceptionally important glasses.
But you can't get them confused.
You can't put your this is what I believe, this is what I
want to see, glasses on before you put your ugly
baby glasses on.
So let's talk about it.
A guy named Andy Grove I'm going to turn the lights down
just a little, so it makes it easier for
you to see the slides.
You can adjust that, right?
It won't be much.
--He fled Hungary just before the Soviets retook the
country, the founding chairman and CEO of Intel.
And he wrote a book talking about Intel's culture, called
Only The Paranoid Survive.
And it truly is based on their belief that if they don't live
a paranoid life, they could disappear.
When that book came out in 1995, Intel controlled 70--
7- 0%--
of the total global return on investment for the
semiconductor industry, and they were paranoid.
Which is why Intel's still the most dominant semiconductor
company in the world today.
What he talked about was a concept called the strategic
inflection point.
Everybody goes through changes in their lives.
Every business faces challenges, new
competitors coming up.
But a strategic inflection point is one of those special
situations, where all the rules that we know are
changing and they're never going to go back.
The easiest way for you to understand it if you are
married: a strategic inflection point is what it
would feel like if you went to bed with your spouse and woke
up with somebody else.
And apparently, some of you would like that to happen.
The giggles, the smile.
And you're sitting next to your wife, buddy.
That's kind of dangerous.
It's that significant.
Competitors are emerging from places where you never
expected competitors.

And things that always worked in your
industry are not working.
I can give you an example.
I'm actually carrying one of these.
One of our friends works for Intel.

This is an iPad 2.
Everybody's seen them.
Some of you even have them.
Instant on, which is really cool.
There's a meeting--
all-heads meeting--
the head of creativity and hardware at Intel, and he held
up one of these to all his Intel-ites.
And he said, what are we known for?
We're known for being the most innovative, dynamic designer
of chips in the world.
This is not our chip.
This is not powered by our product.
We're known for being cutting edge.
We've taken this apart.
We've looked at this.
And what we found was, Apple, a software company, has
designed a chip that would do what you would expect a chip
running something this size to do.
The difference is, it has half the transistors and half the
size of our most advanced chip.
The chip in here is more advanced than anything we've
ever seen, and we didn't build it.
If we don't figure out how to catch up with Apple, only the
paranoid will survive.
We're not Apple.
We're the greatest country this world has ever seen.
But we're facing challenges unlike anything we've seen in
the past. This is Bastrop State Park, two days ago.
You've been there, with the wonderful pines.
Those pines are now gone.

This is what's happening in our world right now.
It is significant.
But look at this.
There were people saying, the world may be on fire, but I'm
going to get in the middle of it, because if I don't get in
the middle and try to stop it, who will?
Our challenge is significant.
We're in the midst of the greatest strategic inflection
point any of us have seen in our lifetime.
And if we don't take it seriously, it's game over.
But this is America.
We don't believe in game over.
We have people who are going to make the effort to fight
this challenge, because the option of failure is
But mark my words, what we're facing is more significant,
more daunting, than the fires in Bastrop which at their peak
were 16 miles long, six miles deep, and moving at five miles
an hour, the worst fire in recorded history in
the State of Texas.
So this is what I believe.
And it's really important.
Because I want to say this right now so you understand.
When I share with you ugly baby information,
this is what I believe.
This country has overcome every single challenge that
has been thrown at it.
This country has demonstrated that our Constitution is not
just a piece of paper with words on it, but something
that lives and breathes.
And this country is blessed and will
continue to be blessed.
But here's the key.
If we decide to take the challenge that we're facing
today as seriously as we take college football, there is no
way we can lose.
The conversation on the Internet is about whether or
not A&M is going to leave, and whether Baylor can force us to
stay, and what's going to happen with OU.
But we're going to have a conversation about something a
little different.
But we take football seriously, which we should.
And it's not a stupid analogy.
Think about football.
We're at the University of Texas.
We had a really bad season last year.
When you go into one of your last games worrying about
beating Florida Atlantic, it's a bad season.
But when we were losing games to Iowa State and Baylor at
home, and UCLA, who did we blame?
Did we blame them?
Those damn Bruins, they don't have a right to beat us--
at home.
We blamed ourself.
And we said, their job is to play as hard as they can.
If they intercept the ball, their job is to run for a
touchdown, not to trip and fall or wait
for us to catch it.
Then we get to the conversation about the
challenges that America faces.
And what do we hear?
It's those damn Chinese.
They're not playing fair.
Twenty years ago, it was those damn Japanese.
It's always somebody else's fault.
That dog doesn't hunt in football.
It shouldn't hunt with our country.
So where are we today?
This is a chart that a friend of mine sent me a
couple years ago.
It's from Morgan Stanley.
And it was right when Greece was falling apart, and the
problems in Greece were putting real pressure on what?
Putting pressure on the Euro and the Euro Zone.
That was two years ago.
Some things don't change, right?
And let's look at these numbers.
Greece had $236 billion, owed by the PIGS: Portugal,
Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.
Greece at $236 billion, Portugal at $286 billion,
Ireland $867 billion.
This is the end of 2009.
Spain, $1.1 trillion.
Italy, $1.4 trillion.
This is debt.

Every one of these countries which was on this chart at the
end of 2009, either has gone through a restructuring--
in the case of the Greeks, again and again and again-- or
is on the verge of going through a restructuring.

And if you want to get a sense of the size, Italy owes
France, the end of 2009, $511 billion, or nearly 20% of
France's GDP.

What's missing here is Germany.
ugly baby glasses--
what is keeping the Euro Zone, the European Union and the
Euro alive, is the willingness of German taxpayers to finance
the rest of Western Europe.
If, or in my opinion, when, the German taxpayers say,
enough of this, we don't want to do it anymore, the Euro
will disappear, the Euro Zone will disappear, and the
European Union will collapse.
And Chancellor Merkel is doing everything she can to try to
convince Germans that it is their responsibility to bail
out the rest of Europe.
We'll see if she's successful.
If she's not successful, Europe as we know it will
change fundamentally.
Here is an indication of how serious it is for the Greeks.
According to Tradeweb, the interest rate for their one
year treasuries is 70%.
And if you believe they actually will be around to pay
it in a year, it would be a really good investment.
Because if you have your money in a money market fund, you're
probably getting, if you're lucky, versus .007%.
If you look at the yield curves, what the yield curves
say, is by 10 years they believe that they will have
solved the problem, so interest rate
will only be 19%.
There is no way that Greece is going to be
able to survive this.
There is no way America could survive interest rates in the
treasuries at this level.
So Greece is going to go down.
It's going to default.
Unless, of course, the Germans decide they're going to
increase their taxes on themselves to save the Greeks.
Italy is what scares most of us.
If you look at this chart, it shows money, sovereign debt,
owed by the Irish, the Portuguese, the Greeks, the
Spanish, and the Italians to European banks.
And by far, the biggest dog in this hunt is Italy.
There is not enough money in Europe to bail Italy out.
If Italy falls, Europe falls.
Now, the good news is, Italy has been making some very hard
decisions, moving very quickly to try to shore up its
currency and shore up its economy.
But look what the little Greeks have been able to do.
We're on the verge of losing the European Union.
This is the big dog.
You follow what's going on in Italy, and if you start to see
interest rates in Italy doing this, it's game over.

Now this is a chart from a young man who is a graduate of
our University and Business School.
His name is Tyler Chessman.
He wrote a book called Understanding the United
States Debt, and I want to plug this book.
It is an amazing piece of work.
And it's done by one of our former students.
And this is not his industry.
He's a software guy.
But he got so concerned about what was going on in America,
and so concerned that most Americans didn't appreciate
how serious this challenge is, he wrote his own book.
And he researched it.
And I have a couple slides from his book.
And he has, also, a great website.
It looks at net and gross debt as a percentage of GDP.
Here is Japan.
Next to it is Greece.
Next to it is Italy, then France, United Kingdom.
And here we are.
Ahead of Egypt in our debt.
And if you look at it, it's saying that our net debt as a
percentage of GDP is about 70%.
That's a big number.
That chart's two years old.
That number's going up.
Here's another chart.
US debt as a percentage of GDP up to the end of 2009.
We know this peak.
This peak is near the end of World War II.
That was a massive transformation of our economy,
where everything was focused on one thing: we're going to
beat our enemies, and we're going to beat them with
whatever means we have.
Look at where we are now.
We're approaching that.
And again, that is at the end of 2009.
The issue of debt is not a partisan issue.
If you look at this chart, what you see is that, whether
it's a Republican or a Democratic administration, we
have been running our country on this amazing idea that we
can borrow our way out of debt.
We have accepted the philosophy of traditional
economists that if we want a 3% deficit, we can do that
forever, and it's OK.
How many of you can spend 3% more than you make, forever,
and not have serious problems?
So this is not a Tea Party issue.
It's not a Republican or Democratic issue.
It is an economic issue.
It's about math.
There's a blip, when Eisenhower was president, when
we had a surplus.
This was since World War--
since the Depression.
There's a blip when Clinton was president,
when we had a surplus.
Eisenhower's a Republican.
Clinton's a Democrat.
Those two blips are the exception.
The projection is not good.
In fact, here is a projection from the Congressional Budget
Office as of June of this year.
Non-health spending flattening out, because
we're cutting costs.
We're trying to be more efficient.
But my generation, the baby boomers, we're retiring if we
can afford to.
We're getting older.
We're getting sicker.
And this is health spending.
And again, Congressional Budget Office, June 2011,
spending revenue.
As we say in Texas, that dog don't hunt.
And so, if you put your ugly baby glasses on, what you know
for sure is whether you look at this chart, or you look at
this chart, this is unsustainable.
And so changes have to occur.
Now let's go quickly back to the first debate that the
Democrats and Republicans had about cutting things.
They were arguing over whether or not they
should cut $60 billion.
And they almost shut the government
down on that argument.
At a time when our deficit was going to
go up by $1.4 trillion.

A meaningless argument.
We are not yet at the point where people understand how
serious this challenge is.
If you drove through Bastrop State Park before the fire, as
some friends of mine did, they said, I have never seen those
pines as dry as they were.
Which means, if anybody lights a match, if there's a spark,
they're going to go like that.
Which they did.

Another way of looking at the challenge: this is
This is what we used to be known for.
Right after World War I, the reason we were the heart of
manufacturing is because all of our competition had been
destroyed by the war.
There was no Asian competition, because their
plants had been destroyed.
There was no European competition, because their
plants had been destroyed.
And we know what had happened to the Soviet Union.
And the rest of the world did not care.
Fast forward, now, to 2010.
Our government is generating more revenue, or spending more
money, than manufacturing.
This is what's been going on.
And most Americans aren't aware of it.
Now let's look at health care and finance and insurance.
And what we see is, we're not just
becoming a service economy.
We eventually become an economy where the insurance
companies and the health companies are the largest
source of economic activity in our country.
I don't know about you, but that doesn't excite me.
Again, ugly baby glasses.
This is surplus and deficit as presented to GDP.
What it shows is, today, 2011, our deficit is equal to what
it was at the peak of the Civil War.
At the peak of the Civil War.
The only two times when our deficit was a higher
percentage of our GDP was in World War I and World War II.
We're in an environment where we are borrowing so much money
that it is like we're in the middle of a civil war.
And we're not in the middle of a civil war.
We're in the middle of a war of denial.
And the reason I go across the country talking to people is
that the first step in fixing things is to be honest about
what's going on.
And to be honest is to look at the data.
This is not Doggett's numbers.
This is number from our government.
And it says, we're in serious trouble.
To give you a sense of how bad it is and how big the
challenge is, because once you understand the challenge, you
then know what you're going to have to do to overcome it.
Here's a chart that looks at every single
recession since 1948.
1948 to 2007.
You have some people telling us that the recession ended
last year, the 2007 recession.
It did if you had a job.
What this chart looks at is unemployment.
The zero is, how many people had a job when
the recession started?
Let's use this line here, the yellow line,
which is for 1974.
It goes down, shows what percentage of people lost
their jobs.
When it comes back up, how long did it take for it to get
back to where we were in terms of jobs, the number that we
had at the beginning?
This bottom represents the trough of the recession.
When it gets back to zero, it represents what?
It represents we're back, from a job
standpoint, to where we were.
And the length of this represents how many months.
This is us today.
This chart just came out last week.
We are in the midst of the longest, in terms of jobs,
deepest recession this country has seen since World War II.
And our politicians are not telling the truth
about this ugly baby.
What economists say--
and by the way, for those of you who think the stimulus had
a big impact, where is it?
In terms of jobs?
It's not there.
This is not a partisan attack.
This is just looking at the data.
In fact, if you take away the census hiring, look at the
slope of the curve.
Now, here's where it's really important to understand how
serious this is.
Look at every one of these recessions.
Look at what happened when the recession started to end.
Look at the slope of these curves.
Look at the slope of this curve.
My economist friends say we're looking at somewhere between
seven and eight years before we get back to zero.
That's the rest of this decade.
Unless we change how we do business.
So the first step of my talk is to make sure everybody
understands, this is serious stuff.
We're going to then talk about our competition, understand
that they're dead serious about taking advantage of us
when we're down.

Again, if you look at recessions, what happens after
a deep recession?
Growth starts to pick up.
We had a deep recession in '82.
Look what happened the next year: massive growth.
We had a deep recession, and it continued for two years.
Look what's happening here.
We're going in the wrong direction.
So, ugly baby glasses.
We're in the midst of a serious financial, economic
growth challenge in this country.
And we need to do something about it.
Otherwise, we'll become the next Japan.
We all know about Japan's lost decade and a half.
And now with the tsunami and the earthquake, maybe lost
quarter of a century.
We are the best, greatest country that ever existed.
But if we run around with our this is what we want to see
glasses, versus our ugly baby glasses, we can become the
next Japan.
But look at the data.
I try to make sure people understand the data.
At the end of September 2000, our country owed $5.7 trillion
to the rest of the world.
Today, it's $14.5 trillion.
And Congress just agreed to give the President the
authority to borrow another $2.3 trillion.
Today, our debt equals 23% of the entire GDP
of the planet today.
And that's just book.
That's not unfunded liabilities.
If we add unfunded liabilities, the money we owe
to our retirees, the actual number is greater than the
entire GDP of the planet for a year.
And look at what is projected.
Right now, our net payments on our debt are 1.4% of our GDP.
They could triple by the end of this decade.
And if they triple, we will be spending as much to service
our debt as we are almost paying today for our entire
defense budget.
That dog don't hunt.

So let me share with you an ad about our deficit that showed
up just before the last election.
I checked it, and I'm sure we'll have no
problem with this link.


-You can change the future.
You have to.
Join Citizens Against Government Waste to stop the
spending that is bankrupting America.
When this ad came out, a lot of people got upset.
Some people said it was racist, because it was making
fun of Chinese, the Yellow Peril.
Other people said, there's no truth to this at all.
Here's an ad a week before the November elections that's
talking about the deficit and the debt, that doesn't mention
any numbers.
What do I do?
I deal with data.
So let's look at the data.
It's from the United States Department of Treasury.
As of June of this year, the largest creditor, foreign
creditor, of the United States of America is the People's
Republic of China.

And we're blaming them.
They're buying us.
In fact, what they're doing is they're financing our
profligate spending.
Because if you look at China, you look at Taiwan, and you
look at Hong Kong--
and I view Taiwan and Hong Kong as wholly owned
subsidiaries of China--
that's about $1.4 trillion of treasuries that they own right
now, as of June.
$1.4 trillion represents our deficit for this year.
We've got other creditors, but if we were to eliminate that
$1.4 trillion deficit, we'd be eliminating what we now owe
China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
Now, some of my friends say, this number has some Chinese
money in it.
They say, this number has some Chinese money in it.
In fact, some of my friends have tried to take the numbers
apart, and they say actually, one way or the other, we owe
China today $2 trillion.

Now, is China wrong to be investing in us?
Are you going to invest in the Euro?
Where else are you going to go?
You going to invest in the yen?
We still are a very safe investment, because we still
remain as the largest economy in the world.
But that video talked about 2030.
Now friends, this is 2011.
Ugly baby glasses.

So what do we do?
Today, we're borrowing about $0.40 for
every dollar we spend.
That's unsustainable.
Congress is talking about raising
taxes or cutting spending.
Clearly, we have to eliminate wasteful spending.
It's not even an intelligent thing to discuss.
And there's some taxes that we can raise.
One of them, which I would support
completely, is Social Security.
We got a football coach who's a great guy, Mack Brown.
He gets paid $95,000 a week.
A week.
The target for Social Security tax is-- right now, the cutoff
is $110,000.
After that, you pay no additional
taxes on Social Security.
So sometime in the second week of January, Mack Brown stopped
paying taxes on Social Security.

Now, please explain to me why that makes any sense.

When I talk to folks who understand Social Security,
they say if we get rid of the cap, we add 30 to 40 years to
the life of Social Security, without doing anything else.

Ugly baby glasses.
If we don't do that, we're going to have to tell people
they can't retire at 65 or 67 they're going to have to wait
until they're 85.
Or we tell Mack Brown, Mack, we're going to give you three
weeks before you stop paying Social Security taxes.
But the real issue is this.
The easiest way to solve this problem is to play better
football, is to grow our economy faster.
If we go from the projections of two to three percent a year
to five to six percent a year, these problems start to
At the same tax rate, if we double our
growth, what happens?
We double our tax receipts.
And if we're disciplined at our
spending, guess what happens?
We keep our spending down, we double our tax receipts, we
start to self-correct.
That's how we've gotten out of every single recession in the
past. We have grown our way out of it.
We have people in Washington who are not
talking about that.
And it's our job to say, excuse me?
The other thing is that we have some assets.
This is not going to be popular.
I don't really care.
I deal with data.
We have some assets that our government can sell.
They can sell it only once.
But they can bring in a tremendous amount of money to
help us pay down our debt.
And those assets are federal lands.

As you can see, this comes from Heritage, but it has
every single government entity that validates these numbers,
and I found other sources.
These numbers work.
The federal government owns 85% of Nevada, 69% of Alaska,
53% of Oregon, 50% of Idaho, 52% of Utah, even 45% of
These are big numbers.
When we get to Texas, they only own 1.86%
of us, thank heavens.

But look at these numbers.
Wyoming 42%, New Mexico 41%, Arizona 48%.
Now, I'm not advocating selling our national parks or
our national monuments.
But we have a lot of land that our federal government owns,
which means we own, that's managed by federal government
employees, that is not on the tax rolls.
And if it's grazing land or land for mining, the royalties
they charge are not market-based.
And if we were to sell that land, we get a one-time hit,
in terms of income.
And if we have real disciplined Americans in
Congress, that money could be used to pay down our debt.
We then wouldn't need as many federal employees in the
Bureau of Land Management and all the other areas that
manage this land to manage it.
And the land would go onto the property tax rolls of what?
The states and localities and municipalities.
And people in the private sector would pay income taxes
on revenue generated from these lands.
Again, I'm not talking about getting rid of our national
parks or national monuments, but there's a lot of land that
our government--
I mean, 85% of Nevada?
69% of Alaska?
45% of California?
Excuse me, do we really need that when we're in the midst
of this crisis?
And the answer is, we don't.
That's one of the hard decisions that has to be made.
You can do it once.
Once it's sold, you can't get it back.
And if we do it, we have to do it with an absolute ironclad
commitment that every single penny of revenue goes to
reducing our debt.
Otherwise, we know what they will do.
They'll waste it.
The other thing we hear from Washington is, these nasty
businesses in America who take jobs overseas.
Well, let's look at cellphones.
Because it's really important to give you a sense of what's
going on in this world.
Beginning in 1997, in China, which had 1.2 billion people
at the time, there were 15 million people who had
In India, that had 1.1 billion people, they had 340,000 users
of cellphones.
Fast forward to the end of 2010.
The Chinese number was 875 million.
The Indian number was 827 million.
And, give or take 100,000, about a million people in
India and China sign up for cellphone service for the very
first time every single day of the year.
I've been blessed to do some work in North Dakota.
That's a new North Dakota and South Dakota every day.
It's a new Scandinavia every week and a half.
And so, if you're in the cellphone business, where do
you have to be?
India and China.
If you're in the television business, where
do you have to be?
If you're in the PC business, where do you have to be?
And are you un-American because you are going where
the market is?
You're capitalist. You believe in going
where the markets are.
And that's not what we hear out of Washington.
And we have to hear that.
We, my friends, are in a global race now.
We are competing with countries from
all over the world.
The old model--
remember strategic inflection point--
of, it's the west and the rest is broken, and it will not
ever come back.
Once we understand that, then we change the way we can be.
Because we are not Rome.
Here's a quote that sounds like it's from the Tea Party.
I will read it to you, for those in the back.
"The budget should be balanced.
The treasury should be refilled.
Public debt should be reduced.
The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and
And the assistance of foreign land should be curtailed, lest
the Republic become bankrupt.
People must again learn to work, instead of living on
public assistance." Sounds pretty current, doesn't it?
Marcus Tullius Cicero, 55 B.C.
We know how this movie ends if you don't take it seriously.
And so the question, at the end of this section of my
talk, are we Rome, or are we America?
I'm not confused.
But I do think we have some politicians who are.
But let's look at our competition.
Because it's really important for you to understand, we have
new competitors who are dead serious about doing what?
Competing the way we told the world they should compete.
By finding markets, by building products, and by
getting those products to market at a price that's so
attractive that people have to buy it.

Some of you are old enough to remember the Cold War.
I'm a baby boomer.
I remember the Cold War.
I remember, I grew up in Los Angeles, and we had air raid
drill practices for nuclear attacks from the Soviets.
And they said, OK, when the siren goes on, you are to get
on your hands and knees and get under the table.
And I was always in trouble with my teachers.
And I said, Teacher, if the Soviets ignite a nuclear
weapon above this school, getting under the table is not
going to do anything.
So why are we wasting our time?
I was immediately sent to the Vice Principal's office.
That's just who I was.
It doesn't make any sense.
We told the world during the Cold War that our way of life,
our economy, our system was superior to
socialism and communism.
We told them that.
And we sent our men and women out to fight, and in some
cases die, to reinforce that.
We did something that had never been seen in the history
of this planet.
We defeated the Germans and the Japanese, who attacked us,
and we spent billions of dollars to
rebuild them in our image.

We said, we're dead serious about this.
We're going to put our people, our treasure, everything that
we represent, behind proving to the world that our approach
is superior.
At the peak of the Cold War, 40% of all the people on this
planet lived under Communist or Socialist rule.
We also had a secret tool.
The tool was Hollywood and CNN.
It's hard for us, with CNN Headline News being almost 30
years old, to remember there used to be a time where if
you're going to find out what happened, you rushed home for
the 5 o'clock or 6 o'clock news, so Walter Cronkite could
tell you what had happened in the day.
And if you missed it, you had to wait till the next day.
And people literally got into accidents, rushing
home to see the news.
And then Headline News came on.
Thirty minutes, every 30 minutes, of what we're going
to tell you.
Which is, quite frankly, not different than anybody else.
But it took away the urgency to rush home.
While that was big here, it was huge overseas.
I remember working in Kenya, for our
government, for awhile.
And there was one television channel.
It was owned by the Kenyan Broadcasting Corporation,
which was government controlled.
It was on for eight hours a day.
And I was in Somalia for our government.
There was one television station, owned by the Somali
It was on for four hours a day.
The first three hours were talking about the dictator
running the country.
The next half hour was talking about sports.
And the last hour, he was talking about his family.
And it was off.
That's it.
And then, two things happened.
We had CNN, and we had satellite technology, and
people started hearing what was going on.
And they said, these bastards have been lying to us.
And then there was Hollywood.
I don't know about you.
I'm not a fan of Desperate Housewives.
It has a wonderful plot.
I screw you, you screw me, we all get screwed.

But Hollywood, in its own bizarre way, has been a
tremendous contributor to the ideas of freedom.
Because what people outside of this country see, when they
see Desperate Housewives, or JR, or Dallas, or any of the
other Hollywood programs, they don't see the plot, because
there is no plot.
What they see is the set.
Think about Desperate Housewives.
Everybody is in a suburban home, three or four bedroom,
two car garage.
The homes are clean, at least until this drought in Texas.
There's a green yard.
Everything is well taken care of.
They have cars.
Everything is really cool.
And in countries around the world, they were being told as
the North Koreans are being told today, that they have a
better quality of life than we have in the United States.
And then they saw the movies.
And the North Koreans and the Soviets and the Chinese and
everybody said, we don't mind importing movies like that,
because they show how decadent Americans are, socially.
What they didn't realize was, the Fifth Column was going on.
People didn't care about the plot.
They were saying, holy crap.
They are living better than we do.
And so, what happened?
When the Berlin Wall fell, it was because the people of East
Germany said, we're tired of this crap, end of
All of us are going to the Wall.
We're knocking it down.
You don't have enough bullets to kill us.
And then the Soviet Union, which was built on the premise
that the only god was communism--
think about this--
went out of business on Christmas Day, 1991.
The irony was not missed by some of us.
But remember what our mothers said.
Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it.
And we wished that we would win the Cold War.
We did win the Cold War.
And what has happened?
Everybody wants to be like us, with their own version of it.
And that's why this SIP is so serious.
Before we won the Cold War, there were two worlds.
Those with or against us or the Soviets, and the rest of
the world, the Third World, these poor countries that were
going to be poor forever, that were going to produce nothing
that we wanted except raw materials, that would never
compete with us.
That was how we looked at the world.
Because we're Americans.
And there are many good things about us.
Understanding world history is not one of them.
I was in Michigan giving a talk, and I saw a great little
quote from the Holland Michigan newspaper.
"Most Americans did not learn much history when they were in
school, and they've forgotten what they learned." Let's
fast-forward to the past. You go to the 1400s and 1500s.
The largest economies in the world were India and China.
And they represented 60% of all GDP on the planet.
And then they went in decline.
But if you're Indian, or Chinese, or Chinese and
Indian, depending on who you are, what do you remember?
We once were dominant, and we're going
to get there again.

2001, as our portfolios were not correcting, they were in
free fall, Goldman came out with a claim.
They said, these four countries will be the dominant
economic players in the 21st century.
At the time they said that, people thought they were
insane, but because it was Goldman, they said, well,
maybe there's something to it, but we don't
really believe it.
For those of you who are not home schooled, the four
countries are in green.

I say that not as a bad joke.
I once had a student who literally did not know where
these countries are.
And I told him, you either learn every country on this
map or you do not graduate.
And at the end, we called him Mr. Geography.
But to give you a sense of how arrogantly ignorant we were,
we said, this country, this country, Western Europe,
Japan, Korea, up here, Japan, New Zealand, which is down
here, and Australia, we will be the dominant economic
forces, and the rest of this mess is irrelevant.
That's what we said.
This is a little country.
Does anybody know what this country is?
Right here.
It's not in green.
Does anybody know?
It's Bangladesh.
I heard Tibet.
But I won't use my pointer to point out Tibet.
You weren't home schooled, were you?
It's Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is slightly smaller than Iowa.
Let me give you some context, because I deal with data.
Iowa has about 3 million people.
Bangladesh has 158 million people.
Think about what our country would be like if half of all
Americans lived in Iowa.
And then you start to think about the rest of the world.
We assume that, with that density, there's no way they
could ever get their act together.
And then there's other data that caused us to say,
Goldman's crazy.
1994, Brazil was facing 6100% inflation.
I had students who were there at the time.
Everything was in cash.
You go into a Walmart, you bought what you could, with
cash, at the cash register, next to the cash register,
because if you went to the back of the store, prices
would have changed while you were in the store.
Every day.
First candidate to rock our world.
Second candidate was Russia.
They adopted capitalism.
After 70 years of communism, they didn't know what to do.
The oligarchs tried to steal the economy.
The economy collapsed in 1998.
The ruble lost half of its value in a very short period
of time, and they had to be bailed out.
So that's the second candidate.
Remember, this is 2001 that Goldman makes the projection.
In 1998, the ruble lost half of its value.
The third candidate is India.
India was on the verge of bankruptcy.
They had one and a half, almost two weeks of foreign
exchange reserves.
And they were spending more than they were bringing in.
The Congress Party asked a guy named Manmohan Singh to be
their finance minister.
He said, I will do that on one condition.
That you allow me to take apart the economy, the
socialist economy, and turn it into something that works.
He is now the prime minister of India.
He saved that country.
And the final one is China.
We've all heard about the cultural revolution.
Most of us do not understand the cultural revolution.
First four years of the cultural revolution, anybody
like us-- educated--
any college like this, any school, was closed down, for
four years.
Any schools or colleges or libraries, anything where
learning was legitimate, was shut down for four years.
And you were sent out to the hinterlands to be educated by
un-educated peasants.
And then the next six years of civil war between the Red
Guards and the People's Liberation Army, to see who
would take back the country.
At the end of the cultural revolution, it was in chaos.
Its economy was so bad that China had half the GDP per
person of India.
Or to put it in Texan, they were twice as poor
as India, in 1976.
Their economy was like North Korea today.
So these were the four candidates.
Let's fast-forward to today.
According to the Central Intelligence Agency, and this
is a great website called CIA World Factbook, China's
economy is now 80% of ours.
India is neck-and-neck with Japan to be the third largest
economy on the planet,
substantially larger than Germany.
Russia, now, is on the heels of Germany.
And Brazil is on $1 billion away from
passing the United Kingdom.
If you're like me, when you came up, Brazil [LAUGHS]
India, let the poor people run around in sheets.
My mother literally said, eat your spinach, there are
children starving in China, when I was growing up.
And there were.
But look at these growth rates.
10.3%, 10.4%, 4.0%, 7.5%.
With the exception of Mexico and South Korea, the bricks,
Brazil, Russia, India and China, are economic miracles.
But think about this.
This number has been going on for more than 30 years.
Now, as you saw on the flyer, I take students to
China and to India.
It's India now, not China.
But I go into China all the time, because my
wife is from China.
In fact, she's there right now.
Works for Dell, here, but goes to China from time to time.
And so, when I was going in and out with our students to
China, I'd always go to the US Embassy and ask our commercial
attache equivalent, the Chinese say they're growing by
10% a year and that they can keep that up
for another two decades.
What do you believe?
And they would always say, in the five, seven years I was
doing that, it was always a female, different ones, she
would say, we think their numbers are too high.
I said, fine.
You're here to tell our government what's
really going on.
What are you telling them?
And for seven years, the commercial attache of the US
Embassy in Beijing said, we believe the Chinese economy
can grow by 7% a year for at least the next two decades.

Do we have any bankers here?
Any bankers?
Rule 72, 7% a year for 20 years.
What does that give you, sir?
I know, I put you on the spot.
It doubles in 10 years, which means it
doubles every 10 years?
If they can grow by 7% a year for 20 years, their economy
would be four times larger than it is today.
You Forex this, you grow at this rate, do the math.
Ugly baby glasses.
It's not about what we want to have happen.
It's about what is happening.
And if you understand what is happening, you do
what Mack Brown did.
You get rid of your friends.
You bring in coaches who know how to coach.
And you work your butt off.
Because if you don't, you're going to lose.
We understand and accept that in football.
We have to understand that with our country, which is,
quite frankly, more important than football.

What Goldman saw was people.
You just look at India and China.
2/5 of the world's population is in those two countries.
When you add Brazil and Russia, that's 41%.
If you look at land mass, because of Russia, 1/5 of all
the land in the world is in those four countries.
But here is where Goldman has shown they knew what they were
talking about.
As of the end of last year, 2010, Brazil, Russia, India
and China were generating $18.55 trillion in economic
activity and GDP, one quarter of all the economic activity
on this planet.
Each one of these countries was on the verge of
Each one of these countries now has an economy that is in
Another way to look at it, the $18.55 trillion is $4 trillion
greater than our total output.
And they're growing at a rate that we're not seeing.

Goldman asked the question, is it possible for China to
become the largest economy in the world?
We probably know what the answer is to it.
And they said, if China could continue to grow by 5% a year,
it would be Number One by 2035.
And so, you can be upset, or you can be a capitalist and
you say, if China's economy is nine times larger than it was
in 2007 by 2050, what are the opportunities that creates for
a business?
I do a lot of work with electric utilities.
For the Chinese economy to grow at 7% a year, they're
going to have to install enough new electric generating
transmission and distribution capacity to equal what we have
here in America.
And they're going to have to spend $3.5 trillion on new
capacity between now and 2030.
$3.5 trillion--
no, that's almost $3.9 trillion, almost $4 trillion
in cash, to buy it.
If we can't figure out how to make stuff that they need when
they're buying $4 trillion worth of stuff, we shouldn't
call ourselves capitalists.
We won the Cold War.
We told people that our way of life, free markets,
capitalism, hustling, made more sense.
And the world's doing that now.
9x is a wonderful number if you are in business, if you
are going to make stuff that people want.
We've never seen that before.
Let's look at India.
India could be neck and neck with us by 2040, according to
Goldman, if they grow by 6% a year.
And by 2050, the Indian economy would be 12 times
larger than it is today.
You can either say, oh, that' horrible, or you can say, man,
that is really sweet.
The opportunities that that represents.
But it doesn't stop there.
You don't like Goldman?
Mackenzie says the same thing.
In the decade that we are in right now, this decade, 50 to
75 million Indians and Chinese will join the middle class for
the very first time, every year, in this decade.
Put that in context.
That's two new Scandinavias, if it's 50
million, every year.
If it's 75 million, it's a new France, every
year, of middle class.

And by the end of 2050, the number of middle class in the
bricks will have gone from a quarter of a million people to
three and a half billion people.

We have never seen this type of explosion of the middle
class in the history of this planet.
We will probably never see it again.
And if we, as Americans, can't figure out how to make money
selling stuff to these folks, then shame on us.

I teach entrepreneurship, global competition,
sustainable energy, and I believe the greatest time to
be a business person is when there's chaos, because the
status quo is collapsing.
And those who are prepared to hustle are going to have great
And we are facing such a huge strategic inflection points,
and such a huge opportunity, I just can't stand
still I'm so excited.
Unless, of course, it's their fault.
You're not supposed to compete.
You Aggies, if you catch the football, fall down so
we can catch you!
We don't expect that in football.
We don't expect that in the real world.
Let's talk about China.
Remember, in 1976 their economy was so broken that
they had half the GDP per capita of India, twice as poor
as India, in 1976.
2006 was the last year the usual suspects were the
wealthiest countries in the world.
Forex means foreign exchange reserves.
It's your bank account, your extra cash that you put in
various currencies.
By the end of 2007, China had more cash than the leading
countries of the west. They then spent five times as much
as the Greeks on the Olympics.
They then created their sovereign wealth fund, called
the China Investment Corporation, which they
started with, they gave it a little hit of $200 billion.
And this year, they're going to give them
another $200 billion.
And at the end of that, their foreign exchange reserves have
gone from $1.5 billion to $3.4--
$1.5 trillion to $3.4 trillion.
At the same time, they're going up, almost doubling
their foreign exchange reserves.
More than doubling it.
What are we doing?
We're borrowing an additional $1.4 trillion.
And as you saw earlier, who are we borrowing it from?
Is it their fault?
Are they doing anything wrong?
We won the Cold War.
We told people that our way was superior.
And what are they doing?
They're playing the game.
And they're playing our song.
And they're doing it better than us.
And we're blaming them.
That is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Another way of looking at it.
This is a great piece of analysis done by
the Financial Times.
It looks at the wealthiest banks in the world by market
It starts in '99.
You can access this on their website.
But I started in 2006.
again, 2006 was the last year the G7 had
more money than China.
2006, there's not a Chinese bank on this.
The usual suspects: Citibank, Bank of America, HSBC.

In 2007, buying into our philosophy, the Chinese take
three state-owned banks, and they go IPO.
And from nothing, they're now number three, number six, and
number seven.
2008 was a really good year for banks, at least at the
beginning of the year.
By the end of the year, it was bad for
everybody including banks.
Market caps exploded.

The most valuable bank in the world was the Industrial and
Commercial Bank of China.
Number three was the China Construction Bank.
Number five was the Bank of China.
Oh, by the way, two more banks show up, Chinese banks: China
Merchants and Bank of Communications.
So, in two years, they go from not one bank at all
represented as the 20 wealthiest, most valuable
banks by market cap, to five.
We know what happened in 2009.
Bad year for everybody, including banks.
Market caps collapse.
And the most valuable banks in the world are now Chinese.
We told the world that our way was better.
There is nothing more capitalistic than market
capitalization, what the stock market says you are worth.
And what the stock market says, we're in the midst of a
strategic inflection point unlike
anything we've ever seen.
Oh, by the way, the banks that were at eighteen and nineteen,
and are now in the middle of the pack?
And guess what Goldman saw?
Two Brazilian banks are now on the list. So, one- two- three-
four- five- six- seven of the banks on the
list were brick banks.
And they weren't on that list three years before.

The Financial Times stopped this analysis in 2009.
If they updated to 2010, another Chinese bank went
public, the Agricultural Development Bank of China.
It's now the third most valuable bank on the planet.
So now, nine of the 20 most valuable banks in the world
are Brazilian and Chinese.
And it's just a question of time before ICICI Bank, which
is the largest bank in India, is on that list. So half of
the banks, by market cap, that are most valuable, will be
Chinese, Brazilian, and Indian.
Ugly baby glasses.
We should be happy about it.
Because what it means is that we did win the Cold War.
Communism is irrelevant.
Even in Cuba now, they're going to free market.

But be careful what you wish for.
We have competition that has massive everything.
IMF says that Goldman was too conservative.
China could become the largest economy in the world by 2016.
At the same time the Americans Against Government Waste were
preparing the commercial I showed you, and their plan was
to run it before the November election, the Conference
Board, which represents the largest private sector
companies in America, asked its economists to look at the
analysis that Goldman Sachs had done, and make adjustments
reflecting the global recession that we're in.
They came back before the election.
The Conference Board looked at what they said, and they said,
there is no way we're releasing the results of your
analysis before the November election.
Because what their economists said was China could be Number
One next year.

November 10, next year.
So we have a choice.
We blame them, or we say, praise be!
Not only have we won the Cold War, the biggest threats to
the Cold War returning have disappeared.
They all buy our economic philosophy.

But we better run faster than we've ever run before.
We better be more serious than we ever were before.
We better have gigantic ugly baby glasses.
Because we are facing a challenge unlike anything
we've ever seen before.
Let's talk about this challenge.

It ain't new.
It's about history.
Most of us are old enough to remember when the Secretary of
Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce were going to Tokyo
all the time, because of Japan ink.
The Japanese are going to buy everything.
They need to revalue their currency.
These damn Japanese, these damn Japanese, these damn
Germans, these damn Chinese, their currency is undervalued.
We can't compete.
Overvalue your currency.
And remember, at one point, GM and Ford were complaining that
Toyota and Honda weren't playing fair.
They said this, literally.
They said, it takes us five to six years to come
up with a new model.
They're doing it every three to four years.
That's not fair.
They said that.
It's not fair!
And what happened?
Congress actually put a limit on how many Japanese cars
could be imported into the United States.
About 1.4 million.
You can import them.
After that, you can't import anymore.
What happened?
Two things.
We won the Cold War.
Before that quota was put on Japanese cars, they were
econo-boxes, stripped.
The minute they said, well, you know, we only have 1.4,
they were loaded to the max.
Everything became standard equipment.
Whereas the Americans were playing with, yeah, you get
four wheels, and everything else is options.
And so they redefined the definition of standard
equipment on American vehicles.
The second thing that happened, is they said, hm,
there's a quota on Japanese cars being
important from Japan.
We could build them in the United States.
We could build them in the United States!
And what happened?
Nissan spent $1.5 billion building a small truck plant
in Mississippi.
Every Mercedes SUV you see was made in
Greenville, South Carolina.
And if you see the big Toyota Tundras?
They're made in San Antonio.
Because what they figured out was, there's no way they're
going to put a quota on vehicles built in the United
States, even if they're owned by Japanese companies.
We saw that movie.
We know how it ends.
Guess what?
That movie is playing in China right now.
We're seeing Chinese companies do the same thing.
The key is, look at what happened.
Japan took off in the mid-sixties.
Most Americans weren't aware of what happened and how
significant Japan's growth was until the late seventies or
early eighties.
China's economy took off in the early nineties.
Most Americans are just starting to become aware of
how significant of an economic growth story China is.
India, my friends, has just lifted off the runway.
And if we had a lot of time, I could show you Brazil.
I could show you Indonesia.
I could show you Mexico.
The story is very simple.
There are wave after wave of countries that have dropped
the Soviet-Communist-Socialist approach to the world economy
and said, the Americans were right.
And as they've dropped those shackles,
guess what's happened?
They're flying big-time.

Right now, we're questioning whether or not our approach
makes sense.
Let's go to Brazil.

Calm down, Paul, calm down.
He's getting very excited.
Brazil, for most of us, is known for soccer.
There is a soccer ball there.
For samba, for sand, for bikinis,
and for plastic surgery.
Plastic surgery, before, after.
Before, after.
And so that's what we think about.
That's what we think about when we think about Brazil.
And the one thing we don't think about is the Brazilians
competing with anything in here.
We think about them competing by a lot of people who are
poor and a great natural resource base.
Well, this is a Brazilian supertanker.
And it's part of the largest fleet of supertankers that
carry this fluid in the world.
This is the Panama Canal, so you can see
it's not that small.
This supertanker's part of a fleet of orange juice
Each one of these ships carries 8 million gallons of
concentrated orange juice.
They are so efficient, they can load them in southern
Brazil and unload them in Boston for less per gallon
than you can produce orange juice in Florida.
There are five Brazilian companies that own the orange
juice industry in Brazil.
They also own a third of all the orange groves in Florida
and half of all the orange juice
processing plants in Florida.
Now, that's the data I had.
I gave a speech at the University of Florida three
weeks ago, and they said, you know your stuff.

Here's where the story gets interesting.
Brazil was not in the export of orange juice business
before 1983.
'83, '84, there's a major freeze in Florida, killed a
lot of trees.
We drink more orange juice than anybody else.
We wanted our O.J. We couldn't get it from Florida.
The Brazilians say, we have it.
Today, Brazil's the largest exporter of orange juice to
the United States and the largest exporter to
Europe in the world.
And they were not in the business before the
And the reason they're buying all these orange groves,
they're going to small mom and pop orange grove owners who
can't compete with the Brazilians,
and they say, listen.
I'd like to buy your orange grove.
I'll pay $25,000 an acre in cash.
Here's the cash.
But you have to sell today.
Now, these are folks who are hoping that they could feed
their families and something would happen, maybe Disney
would come buy them.
And somebody walks up with a suitcase full of cash, and
they're selling.
We won the Cold War.
This is the Embraer 195.
It's the largest airplane that Embraer makes.
Embraer is the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the
world, after Airbus and Boeing.
You fly Jetblue, half of their planes are Embraer.
You fly American Eagle, you have Embraer.
They make the largest fleet of regional planes in the world.
This plane is designed and manufactured in Brazil.
This is a Brazilian jet.
This is the Canadian Air version, the Air Canada
version, of the Embraer 190.
When I was in China with my students, we flew one from
Beijing to Chongqing It's a great plane.
A little smaller than a 737, but what makes it really neat
is there's no middle seat in coach.
I don't know about you, but the middle seat in a 737 in
Southwest is not a fun experience.
It's a great plane.
It's a Brazilian plane.
Oh, by the way, they now have oil.
They found oil off the coast of Brazil.
They, today, are the third largest producer of oil in
this hemisphere.
Most people think they'll be the largest by
the end of this decade.
And, just to make sure you understand how the game has
changed, most of the oil field development is financed by the
People's Republic of China.

My most favorite picture from India.
It's of students who want to learn.
It's of students who don't care about the crappy class.
They want to learn.
And when we were in India, in March, with my
students, we went to--
they call these government schools.
Not much better than this.
But the gleam in the eyes of those students, the hunger and
thirst to learn and better themselves, caused
us to say, oh my.
I couldn't put a sign like this in my classroom.
I'd be accused of not being politically correct.
So I just practice it.
But that's the image most of us have of India.
Here's the India that also exists.
This is Infosys, second largest IT company in India.
What I love about it, this is their corporate headquarters
in Bangalore, India, in southern India.
Their motto: powered by intellect, driven by values.
Powered by intellect, driven by values.
Here's part of this corporate headquarters.
It is second only to Microsoft in size.
We won the Cold War.
These are some of my students.
This is our handler.
This is part of their campus.
It's a stunning campus, in Bangalore, southern India.
This is the Delhi airport, the Indira Ghandi airport.
IndiGo is an airline created by a wealthy family who hired
a couple of Indian executives who were at Delta and US Air,
to come back and create their version of Southwest Air.
It's a great airline, very efficient.
India is making massive investments in its road and
railroad infrastructure.
But right now, it's a hell of a lot easier and cheaper to
fly than to drive.
What they're doing different is they've cut a deal with
Accor, which is a French hotel company, and by the end of
next year, IndiGo Airlines will also own 50,000
hotel/motel rooms where their planes fly.
They will be the largest hotelier in India.
And all of this is less than 10 years old.
What makes it even more interesting, is the Indira
Gandhi airport is still owned by the government, but they
have privatized it, which means they own the land but
it's run by a private sector company.
When the government was running it, this airport,
which is for the capital of India, had a maximum capacity
of 5 million passengers a year.
Today, the same airport, with not one inch more of land, can
handle 40 million passengers a year, because of
We won the Cold War.
And we created competitors.
We need to celebrate that and then tighten our belts and
start hustling.
The House of Tata, the second largest family group in India,
said, I want to create a car that's affordable for the
masses who are starting to emerge from working class to
middle class.
For people who are commuting on mopeds and
motorcycles and bikes.
Because there's something called the monsoon, and it's
not fun to be on a motorbike or a moped in
the middle of a monsoon.
Now, this vehicle fully tricked out, that's the luxury
edition, costs about $3000, taxes included.
Looks like a smart car, a little smaller than a smart
car, but it's a lot cheaper.
It'll show up in the United States in another year or so,
when they figure out how to adjust it
for our safety standards.
But their business model is a great business model.
You have a moped.
It's a monsoon.
Or you're in a nano.
You're in a nano.
You roll up the windows, you turn on the air conditioning,
you turn on Mozart.
You want that.
Now, a lot of people, when they see this, they say,
that's a silly little car.
I don't want that.
How about this?
This also is owned by Tata Motors.
In 2007 and 2008, Ford said, we can no longer afford to
hold on to Jaguar.
Because we're losing money on it.
And Tata came to them and said, well, we want to buy
something that you have, but we don't want Jaguar.
I mean, Jaguars break.
And they said, well, you can't get what you want unless you
buy Jaguar.
And they said, we don't want Jaguar.
They say, it's two or zero.
And they say, well, what we want is this.
And so if we have to buy this to get this, we will do that.
So when you see people in Austin, driving around in
their Jags looking snooty, they're driving an Indian car.
And when you see people who have their nose so stuck up
that it's on the ceiling in their Range Rovers, they're
driving an Indian car and they probably don't know it.
But here's where the story gets interesting.
When Ford sold Jaguar and Range Rover to Tata Motors in
2008, in 2009, Tata Motors did what Ford did.
They lost $435 million.
In 2010, after having two and a half years of running Jaguar
and Range Rover, Tata made $1.7 billion in profit off of
these two car lines.
We won the Cold War.
And everybody is reading from our hymnal and doing a better
job of singing.
What does this look like?
Looks like California, right?
Where I used to be.
And I'm so happy I'm not living there.
It's the most beautiful bankrupt state in America.
With crazy people, to boot.
That's typical California, right?
Nice little glass dining room table, with white chairs in
the dining room.
If you have kids, that really is insane.
A little indoor swimming pool with a rock climbing wall.
These are high end developments outside of
Beijing, the People's Republic of Communist China.
And they're sold out.

These row houses cost between $5 to 7 million US.
This free standing house costs about $12 million US.
Sold out.
Sold out.
We won the Cold War.
If this is not our image, I don't know what is.
I took this picture in Shanghai in 2008.
I was standing on the old side of the Huangpu River looking
to Pudong, which is the new side of the river.
It's a cool picture.
We've seen that.
What most of us do not understand
is this next picture.
Now, hold onto your camera, because a lot of you are going
to get vertigo on this.
This is Pudong.
This is what it looked like in 1990.
This is what it looked like in 1999.
This was done in nine years.
This was done in nine years.
We are facing competition that has bought into our vision and
is executing our vision in a way we can't even imagine.
As I say, I do a lot of work with electric utility
companies, and they say, we can't even get a permit to
build a power line in nine years.
And they did this in nine years.
And that's happening all over the country.
By the way, 6 of the tallest 15 buildings in the
world are in China.
If you look at this picture, this building and this
building are not in this picture that I took in 2008.
One of them is under construction.

This one's done.
About 102 stories high.
For some strange reason, when you get to walk across this,
it's glass, so you can look down 100 stories.
Oh, yeah.
The good thing about it being glass is that
it's easy to clean.

This building, which will be the second tallest building in
the world, will be finished next year.
And to put it in context, to understand the speed of our
competition, is this little chart from Mackenzie, or data
from Mackenzie.
Half of all the skyscrapers over 30 stories are being
built in China.
And China could build enough new skyscrapers to equal one
new Chicago every year into 2030.
If we can't figure out how to make money in a country that's
growing that fast-- and that's just China.
That doesn't include India or Brazil or Indonesia, which is
now taking off--
there's no excuse for us.
But some of our companies have figured that out.
Walmart has said they will have more stores in China by
2025 than they have in the United States.
Let me put that into context.
Today, Walmart has a store within five miles of 85% of
all Americans.
They'll have more stores in China than they have in the
United States.
Ikea has more stores in Hong Kong than they have in Texas.
They're growing the fastest in China.
50 to 75 million people are joining the middle class every
year, wanting everything that the middle class has.
Think about what you want when you're in the
middle class: cars.
Think about what's consumed: natural resources,
commodities, and electricity.
And then think about the growth opportunities.
Are there environmental challenges?
Absolutely, and we'll talk about that in a minute.
Those environmental challenges create environmental
opportunities for us.
This is the greatest time to be a
business person in America.

They've seen that story, too.
China's population is aging faster than we are, by far,
because of the one-child policy.
Unintended consequence of the one-child policy: one mouth,
six pockets.
Six pockets are Daddy and Mama and two sets of grandparents.
I got in trouble saying this last time.
I'm going to say it again.
In America, where there's no one-child policy, you could be
my son, you could be my son, you be my son, you be my son,
and Jeremy, you definitely could be my son.
But if one of you turns out to be a screw-up, a screwball, I
got four other sons.
They get a one-child policy.
And my only son is Oliver, right over there.

And I'm saying, Lord!
What did I do to deserve this kid?
And then I got my wife and I, and two sets of grandparents,
saying, Oliver, you are the person who's going to be the
carrier of two dynasties: our family line
and your family line.
So in spite of your unique personality, you're not going
to be allowed to be a screw-up.
So what does that mean?
1950, when the Communists took over in China, the literacy
rate was 15%.
Today, the literacy rate is 92%.
You got one kid?
The one thing you're going to do is to learn, whether you
want to or not.
That's also had a massive impact on productivity.
And it's also created a problem.
Because boys are preferred over girls.
And depending on who you talk to, there's somewhere between
45 to 100 million Chinese men who cannot marry a woman,
because she was never born, because she was aborted.
So how do you solve that problem?
You can do the American approach, which is to say,
well, we got this problem.
We just say, being fat is nice.
Ugly baby glasses.
Or we can use the Chinese approach.
They are encouraging their citizens to emigrate to other
parts of the world.
Three years ago, there was a race riot in Sienna, Italy.
The Italians were complaining that the Chinese did not know
how to work the European work way.
They were working too hard.
I kid you not.
I'm in Barbados, a gigantic country of 275,00 people.
The Chinese are now dominating road construction in Barbados.
And a black Barbadian from the National Development Bank
said, mark my words, Professor Doggett, in 10 years the
ethnic composition of this island will be different.
And to put it in context, at the end of last year, there
were over a million Chinese farmers in Africa.

When the East India Country took over India, at the time a
country of 300 million people, it had 1500 employees.
At the peak of the British occupation of India, they had
100,000 soldiers, bureaucrats, and employees.
There are a million Chinese farmers in Africa.
So what they're doing is saying,
you're absolutely right.
If we don't change things, we're going to be like
America: fat, obese, and dying.
So we're going to hustle.

I'm in Santiago in January.
There are 15 different models of vehicles made by Chinese
companies in Santiago.
Not one of them is here, yet.
I'm on the board of a nonprofit.
One of our board members is from Peru.
He said there are 2 million Chinese in Peru.
My wife, we were in Buenos Aires two Christmases ago, and
because she's Chinese, I see things I
wouldn't normally see.
And we were amazed at the number of small grocery stores
that are owned by Chinese.
We then go to Rio.
Go out to Bustio, which is a nice place for vacation.
We found three banana stops whose owners are Chinese.
So let's run the math.
Because I deal with numbers.
You got 1.3, almost 1.4 billion Chinese in China.
You take 300 million Chinese, and you put them in Africa.
They're now a third of all Africans.
You still have 1.1 billion Chinese in China.
You take another 300 million out of China, and you put them
in Latin America.
They're now 40% of all Latin Americans.
You have 700 million Chinese in China.
You put 200 million in Siberia, you have more Chinese
in Siberia than you have Russians in Russia.
And China, which is the same size as the United States,
still has more people than we have here.
That's how you solve that problem.
We, on the other hand, are saying, we need more
acceptance of people who are fat.
And so, today, how we're dealing with the problem of
obesity is that hospitals and EMS and fire departments and
mortuaries are buying super-sized gurneys.
Because 10 to 15% of the people they see
weigh over 400 pounds.
I have a lot of friends who were fat and obese, and I say,
you are wonderful people.
Your joints aren't designed to take it.
At some point, your health is going to deteriorate fast.
Ugly baby glasses.
It's a great question.
Let's go fast. This is a sign that you could not put in a
public square.
The ACLU would not let you do it.
Not because it's Chinese, but because of what it says in
English: time is money, efficiency is life.
This is in Shenzhen in southern China.
Some of my Chinese students at McCombs have said, oh, yeah,
they had this sign on the wall of our school.
How many of our schools have this sign?
Time is money, efficiency is life.
We won the Cold War.
Shenzhen, in 1979, was a sleepy little fishing village
with 30,000 people, best known-- it's right next to
Hong Kong--
best known for smuggling people into Hong Kong and
things out of Hong Kong.
Deng Xiaoping, the father of Chinese capitalism, came to
Shenzhen in 1979, looked across the border, saw Hong
Kong, and said this sucks.
I want a Communist Hong Kong.
This is what Shenzhen looked like in 1979.
This is what it looks like today.
11 million people.
This is Hong Kong.
Shenzhen is larger than Hong Kong.
If you've been to Shenzhen, it's a linear city.
It just keeps growing.
My wife is home for another week, with her mother, in a
little city called Xiangzhen has 11 million people, and
most of you have never heard of it.
I had not.
I have been there.
There are 11 million people there.
All across China, this is happening.
But it's not just in China.
Let's talk about one other thing.
Let's talk about airplanes, which is really important.
A report just came out from Boeing, that to deal with its
growth, China will need to buy 5,000 new planes, worth more
than $6 billion, between now and 2030.
Their estimate last year was 4300.
And oh, by the way, in July of last year they delivered their
800th plane to Boeing.
And so, if you see an economy growing that fast for planes,
and you're Chinese, what do you do?
China's a huge market for Airbus and Boeing, but now
China is building its own jet, the C919.
This is the C919.
It will go into test in 2014, they will start
shipping it in 2016.
It will instantly make Comac, which is the Chinese airplane
manufacturing company, which did not exist in 2000, the
third largest manufacturer of airplanes in the world.
What they plan to do is to build a plane that is 15-18%
more fuel efficient, faster, and longer range than the 737
or the A320.
It will have fly by wire technology, which is what you
expect to see in the latest plane.
The most valuable airline in the world by
market cap is Air China.
And look at the numbers.
Without the C919, Boeing and Airbus expected to sell about
3500 narrow body planes to China in the next 20 years.
But when this plane comes online, most analysts expect
the C919 to sell 2500 to Chinese
carriers, a 73% reduction.
We can do one of two things.
We could say, that ain't fair!
Or we could say, this is Capitalism 101.
I'm looking at these numbers.
I'm seeing how much money I'm making for these guys, and
say, holy crap, I need to make an airline.
I need to make an airplane, so I can keep that money home.
That's what capitalism is all about.
That's what the Chinese, the Brazilians, the Indonesians,
everybody are doing.
So what do we do?
Let me fast forward.
There are environmental problems that China has.
They're serious.
And they create opportunities for us.
Because I grew up in Los Angeles, where this is the way
things look, and it doesn't look that way anymore.
We have products that can make it possible
for this to go away.
Because the Chinese hate this.
My wife bought a bicycle so she could drive around,
because she can't figure out how to get a Chinese driver's
license, because she's now a Singaporean citizen.
And it's hard for a foreigner to get a driver's license.
So she said, heck, I'll get a bike and ride around.
And we were talking yesterday and she said, it's great to
ride around, but the air is so damn dirty.
They hate this.
Which is what it used to look like in Cleveland, a few
decades ago.
And the largest environmental movement on the planet, by
people, is in the People's Republic of China.
Every day, there are 160 to 200 protests against
environmental degradation in China.
Every day.
This is a protest against a trash burning incinerator that
has no scrubbers.
So, in spite of everything we hear, the Chinese, like us, do
not want to breathe dirty air, eat tainted food, or use
anything that could hurt them.
So let's fast forward, because we're short on time.
So what do we do?
The first thing that's happened is we're going where
the market is.
Applied Materials, which has a plant here, off of 290, they
moved their chief technology officer, permanently,
to China last year.
And had their annual meeting, this Silicon
Valley company, in Xi'an.
Because Xi'an's the head of their high tech research.
Here's one of the plants they're
building, they've built.
And what is important is this young lady.
She's an engineer.
Her name is Zeliana.
She's 26 years old, and she was asked if China would play
a big role in clean energy in the future.
She was surprised by the question.
Quote, "Most of the graduate students in China are chasing
this area, clean energy," she said, "Of course China will
lead everything." Sounds like a Longhorn.
That's confidence.
What do you do when your competitor says, we are not
going to lose?
Do you cry?
Or do you tighten you buckle and say, fine, game on?
I am proud of what they're trying to do in China, what
they're doing in India, what they're doing
all around the world.
Because they are singing from our hymnal.
I'm proud of it.
Hundreds of millions of people are no longer poor, because
they bought into our vision, not the Soviet's vision.
In fact, the World Bank says, between 1980 and 2000, 400
million people went from being poor, living on less than a
dollar a day, to being blue collar, in China alone,
because they embraced capitalism.
So I'm proud of that.
The question's what do we do about it?
So we're going to go fast.
Does this look like Desperate Housewives?

This is not a million Renminbi.
This is a million US dollars.

This is the wedding of a coal baron to a coal baron-- a coal
baron's son to a coal baron's daughter.
What's important, though, is that this is Datong in Shanxi
province, which is equivalent of all Appalachia.
Ignore the Lamborghinis and the Ferraris and the Rolls
Royce and the Bentleys.
Look at the infrastructure of what used to be one of the
poorest parts of China.
You saw Shenzhen.
You saw Beijing.
You saw Shanghai.
This is Datong.
They are building high quality stuff all over.

Think about going to a job fair with 150,000 graduates.
How do you meet the needs of these kids?
You got to grow the economy.
You got to keep that economy growing.
So if you think that China's going to say, we need to slow
down because Congress is upset with us, that ain't happening.
But here's our challenge.
With all their growth, they still have hundreds of
millions of Chinese who live like this.
And their promise to them is, if you don't get upset about
this, we will help you have a better life.
How do you do that?
You're got to grow the economy.
In India, March, major metro project in Delhi, the
capital, New Delhi.
I saw women with 13th century technology on a major
construction project.
How long will they wait?
And when we were in Brazil, we saw favelas like this.
Brazil was making a big gamble on a big bet that they can
jump start themselves to the next level.
They're going to have the Olympics and the World Cup, in
the middle of this decade, two years apart.
And to have that come off, the people living here have to
say, we're happy.
Which means, the transformation that Brazil has
to go through between now and 2016--
2014 and 2016 is fundamental.
A big bet.
What's our big bet?
We're going to try to cut $60 billion out of a
$1.4 trillion deficit.
So, what do we do?
We'll finish with this.
The first thing is, we understand the value of our
university system.
This is a study done by the Kauffman Foundation, looking
at the impact that MIT graduates were having on
America's economy, on the world's economy.
The study was finished in 2008, published in 2009.
It said, about 26,000 companies that are active,
employing 3.3 million people, generating
$2 trillion of revenue.
And that if these companies had been a country, at the end
of 2008 they would have been the 11th largest country
economy in the world.
That is one university.
I have been asking and begging UT do the same thing.
I haven't found anybody that thinks this type of research
is important.
But I will not give up.
Because I think our story could be just as impressive.
One of our strengths is where you are sitting, our great
Especially when they focus on applied research.
The second thing is, immigrants.
We have this conversation about
immigration all the time.
And the conversation is, we hate them.
They need to go someplace else.
Let's look at the data for the National Venture Capital
A quarter of all the US publicly traded companies that
were funded by venture capitalists were founded by
Indian, Chinese, Korean, Israeli immigrants, first or
second generation.
The market cap, two years ago, was $0.5 trillion.
If you look at high technology manufacturing companies, 40%
were founded by immigrants.
If you look at Americans working in high technology
manufacturing companies funded by VC, more than half.
The issue is not whether we want to have immigrants.
The issue of what type of immigrants do we get?
If we're going to compete, we're going to go to Florida
or California to get the best football players, if we can.
That's what OU does.
There's a great joke.
If you want to see a sad football coach from OU or
Oklahoma State, that's a football coach who has a team
that doesn't have Texas players.
And we accept that.
We accept that there are kids from Texas are going to play
from OU and kick the snot out of us.
Well, let's apply football to our country's survival, and
let's tell the world, if you have skills and ability, we
want you to come here.
Because we're going to give you a quality of life you
can't get any place else.
Starting off with the air.

As far as farming is concerned, as China and India
continue to industrialize, they're taking farmland out of
People still want to eat.
They have more income.
Guess what happens?
They need to buy stuff.
Mark these words.
And if you're an investor, invest on this.
I don't make many investment recommendations, but farmland
is going to get more valuable.

Because by the end of this decade, there will be no farm
supports, because they will not be necessary.
In fact, we're talking about this right now because we will
be able to sell whatever we can produce.
And we will have to produce as much as we can.
Because people are going to be buying.

But the real question about who we are, is creativity.

In the mid-nineties, Michael Dell came to this class, my
class with Gary Cadenhead.
It was a joint class.
And he was really down on Apple.
And I asked Michael, I said, if you were to wake up
tomorrow and find out that you'd inherited Apple, because
you had a great aunt who owned it, what would you do?
And he said, quote, I'd go back to sleep, because clearly
I was having a nightmare.
And I said, well you woke up, Michael, and you're not having
a nightmare.
You now own all of Apple.
What would you do?
And he said, I would sell as quickly as possible.
It is a dead man walking.
There's data.
I'm not putting Michael down.
He said that.
He believed that.
He had it in his autobiography.
Today, Apple has more cash on its balance sheet than Dell
had revenue last year.
And for a brief moment, it was the most valuable company in
the world by market cap, past Exxon and Mobil.
Because these people are creative.
They create stuff.
2007, there was no iPhone.
By the end of 2009, the iPhone represented 8% of all the cell
phones in the world, capturing one third of all the profit in
the cell phone industry.
It did not exist before 2007.
IPad, this little iPad today, generates a billion dollars
more than their entire line of Mac computers.
And in country after country after country, I want an iPad.
Excuse me?
What did I do wrong?
Why did you give me something other than an iPad?
The iPad is less than two years old.
20% of all sales growth in publicly traded retailers in
America are in Apple stores.
Apple stores did not exist 10 years ago.
They now make more money than Tiffany's.
And they're growing.
They are the fastest growing, most aggressive, most robust
retail we have in this country.
One company that was almost bankrupt.
In fact, if Bill Gates hadn't given them $150 million back
in the 90s, they would've died.
And we know the story about Apple.
It's even more interesting.
Two more slides and we're done.
The UAW was faced with a new plant for subcontract
Chevrolet going to Mexico, and they said, I think we've done
some basic math.
$14 an hour for a job for unemployed workers is much
better than $28 an hour and no jobs.
And so they cut a deal.
And between management and the UAW, they did a number of
things to make it possible to build a vehicle, the Sonic, in
Detroit instead of Mexico.
We can compete.
And so let me finish--
it's going to be made in Detroit instead of Mexico.
It's the Sonic.
Let me finish with a video that was played in the last
Superbowl that I think sums up the spirit
of this great country.
And I'm sorry we're running over.
Thank you for coming.
We're going to end with this.
Some of you may have seen it.

-I got a question for you.
OK, we're going to stop it again.
It doesn't like what I do, but it's not going to
get away with it.
First thing, I'm going to turn the volume up even higher.
You've got to hear this.
This is about the spirit of America, why I started off
saying I have no doubt that when we decide to compete,
we're going to kick some serious you-know-what.

-I got a question for you.
What does this city know about luxury?
What does a town that's been to hell and back know about
the finer things in life?
Well, I'll tell you.
More than most. You see, it's the hottest fires that make
the hardest steel.
Add hard work and conviction, and the know-how that runs
generations deep in every last one of us.
That's who we are.
That's our story.
Now, it's probably not the one you've been reading in the
papers, the one being written by folks who've never even
been here and don't know what we're capable of.
Because when it comes to luxury, it's as much about
where it's from as who it's for.
Now, we're from America.
But this isn't New York City, or the Windy
City, or Sin City.
And we're certainly no one's Emerald City.

-This is the Motor City.
This is what we do.

If Detroit can be proud of its heritage, we have no excuse.
So I'm done.
But let me tell you something.

We have just started the fight.
Thank you very much.