The chaotic global economy and the implications for Brazil


Uploaded by lapressetv on 12.11.2012

Transcript:
The chaotic global economy and the consequences to Brazil
The global economy seems to be chaotic
Economic crisis in Europe
Chinese economic slowdown
and the possibility of a strong recession in the United States
from next year on
with this scenario, how can be our economic lives here in Brazil ?
Let's know all about it with the economist Roberto Luis Troster
of 'Troster e Associados'. How are you, Troster?
I'm fine. And you, Luciene?
Thank you for the opportunity of interview on La Presse
Thank you for the invitation
Well, we have few time ahead to the discussions
between U.S. government and Congress trying to avoid the Fiscal Cliff
from January 2013 on. How can it affect us here in Brazil?
First of all, they are gonna be nervous negotiations
everybody is paraleling with what have happened last year
Last year, three months before July
The unemployment started to climb
the country's economic performance swings
and took Obama's in a bad phase
declining under the next year's election pressure
the Republicans have abused a little
they have learned the lesson
There's no other near election
I believe that there will be volatility during November and December
but they will find a consensus before
they won't leave to the 12o hour like they did last year
If this problem solved, how Brazilian's life can be in investments industry?
I think that our problem is domestic
Everybody says that what is happening here is an economic slowdown
is what happens in all world
if we see since December 2011 to November 2012
the European economic growth declined 0,2%
the Brazilian's declined 1,7%
other Latin America countries like Peru, Colombia and Chile
didn't have decreases in forecasts
our problem is in the internal dinamics
we have a huge knot in the credit sector
all the changes made in industry
this anachronistic vision of protectionism
is charging its price
industry will go back this year
and will go a little bit better next year
'cause the basis is very bad
You've talked about industry, Troster, and how the labor market will be next year?
We won't have unemployment
but the labor market won't have so strong rhythm
everybody was antecipating a stronger recovery
all data shows that this recovery hasn't come
Possibly, our labor force rhythm will be weaker, but we won't have unemployment
They are not bad data, but we can't toast them
What about inflation?
Inflation will be 5,5% this year
next year something lik this
if we don't face a supply shock
the idea was the goal in 4,5%
the government seems to have an informal goal of 5%, 6%
and if everything's goes fine and economy won't recovery so strongly
we will stay on 5,5% durign the next years
And the interest rate?
The government will try to keep it at 7,25%
their speech is to keep it at 7,25% during 2013
Considering that in 2014 we will have elections
and no government likes to raise the interest rate during an year of election
Possibly, the speech is gonna change
and we can see a raise in the interest rate in the 5o or 6o Central Bank meeting next year
in August or September 2013
in July or August 2013 we can see a raise in the interest rate
and how're gonna be defaults and credit supply levels?
you have a big snow ball of credit
which is getting worse
since early last year thay are saying it will be reduced
and it raised since early this year
in April when they did these measures
the competition among public banks
default continues to rise
the Central Bank's number is 7,9%
and for overdraft is 12%
with more than 90 days of delay
for each R$8,00 overdarft there are more than 90 days of delay
Ipea's data says that one in 10 families
won't pay all debts
the government must do an adjustment in the credit dinamics
or what was an accelerator during Lula's goverment, now is a brake in Dilma's time
Ok, Roberto Luis Troster, thank you for joining us on La Presse's website
Thank you, Luciene
From BM&FBOVESPA, São Paulo, Brazil, I'm Luciene Miranda